2023-24 NBA betting season preview: Breaking down futures odds and major award contenders – The Athletic
It’s been a busy offseason since the Denver Nuggets won the championship last season. The draft infused young talent across the landscape while some of the pretenders that now bow down at the feet of the Nuggets tweaked their rosters to try and become true contenders. There’s drama in Philadelphia while we will find out if the banana is still stuck in the tailpipe of Clippers Nation.
There are storylines galore and BetMGM will have lines for everything you fancy. Let’s take a look at what they offer for the upcoming NBA season and I will provide my insights and observations.
NBA championship odds
In 2021, the Celtics lost in the NBA Finals to the Warriors. Last season, they were second in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency but got bounced by the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. In the offseason, Brad Stevens made two huge additions in Kristaps and Jrue Holiday. While depth was sacrificed, this starting lineup is one of the most potent in the league and could dominate at both ends of the floor. It’s not a surprise to see the Celtics with the best odds to win it all.
What is somewhat surprising is seeing the Bucks tied with the Celtics at +400. I get it and wouldn’t be shocked if they win it all since they have a dynamic duo in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. That said, the defense will likely take a step back and there are uncertainties due to having a new coach with different philosophies.
The Nuggets at +550 is fair. While they have the best player in the game and the starting lineup remains intact, there are question marks in the second unit.
The Lakers look kind of juicy at +1300. They won it all three years ago and still have LeBron James and Anthony Davis with an up-and-comer in Austin Reaves. They have a ton of size, so they will be able to bully some teams but they also added shooting. The Lakers should be tough at both ends of the court.
The 76ers at +2000 is an obvious stay away. There is just too much uncertainty in Philadelphia. It doesn’t sound like James Harden wants to be there, so if he doesn’t get traded before the start of the season, it’s highly unlikely he will be engaged in any championship aspirations.
The Cavaliers at +2500 is mighty enticing. They were the best defensive team in the league last season and finished eighth in offensive efficiency. Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell make up one of the best backcourts in the league and Evan Mobley is primed to break out. In the offseason, the team addressed the need for shooting and acquired Max Strus and Georges Niang. The talk all offseason was playing with more pace, so the offense could be more potent this season.
The Mavericks are at +2500 and I get it. They did a wonderful job constructing the roster around Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving through the draft and free agency. I’m worried about Luka, though, as he dealt with an injury last season and is still not right. Also, is Jason Kidd a good coach?
Before the cliff falls into pretender land, the Timberwolves at +6600 stand out. They have a bona fide alpha in Anthony Edwards, steady leadership in Mike Conley and two excellent bigs in Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert. The twin towers thing may not work, but it’s within the range of outcomes that they figure it out after one year’s worth of experience. Minnesota was 11th in defensive efficiency last season.
Rookie of the Year odds
This is likely a three-horse race between Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson and Chet Holmgren. Wembanyama has been considered a generational prospect for some time now, but his odds opened up at -225 and have come back to the pack.
I think it’s a combination of things. First, there is some uncertainty as to how many games Wembanyama will actually play. The Spurs are playing the long game here, so health is the top priority. They want to make sure he’s good to go when they are ready to actually compete for a championship.
Henderson could play more games and he’s going to garner a ton of usage. And will likely be on “SportsCenter” more than a few times this season.
Holmgren will also have his share of highlights, but the Thunder could actually be really good. If they make a playoff run and Holmgren is dominating on defense while being a force at the offensive end, that could sway voters.
As for long shots, my two are Keyonte George at +5000 and Bilal Coulibaly at +10000. The Jazz are still trying to figure out who will be the point guard this season. George will likely spend time in the G League, but he’s been very impressive this summer and there has been chatter that he could be in the mix. If, and it’s a big if, he starts and puts up numbers while the Jazz are in the playoff picture, you never know.
Coulibaly has already shown elite defensive skills. That may get him on the court sooner than expected. If he’s playing over 30 minutes while racking up highlight blocks and steals while displaying an offensive repertoire that makes jaws drop then… Yeah, it’s a pipe dream and there would likely have to be injuries to the top three. Hey, it’s a longshot for a reason.
MVP odds
This award usually goes to a player on one of the best teams in the league. Bob Petitt (1955) and Kareen Abdul-Jabbar (1975) are the only two players in NBA history to win the regular season MVP award playing on teams with a losing record.
Nikola Jokić is in play to win this award every season. He won in 2021 and 2022 while Joel Embiid took the honor last season. I think people are just numb to Jokić’s greatness at this point.
Giannis with the second-shortest odds? I don’t know how I feel about that. He’s been dealing with a knee issue and the defensive stats have subsided. Plus, Lillard could be looked upon as taking votes away if he balls out. Lillard is at +3000 by the way.
Does Jayson Tatum seem too high? He is the alpha on what will likely be the best team in the NBA. That said, there is a lot of talent and some of the success could be attributed to his teammates. Taking away MVP votes, perhaps? Probably not but it’s something to consider.
Embiid is at an interesting spot. First off, Nick Nurse loves to play his guys so he could see a few extra minutes of run to boost the counting stats. If, and it’s an IF, Embiid can stay healthy, the numbers he puts up could be unmatched by anyone. If he does that while leading the 76ers to the playoffs without James Harden, that could be fuel for the back-to-back.
Three longshots stand out to me who could have a shot: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+1800), Donovan Mitchell (+3000) and Anthony Edwards (+3300).
Shai is really freaking good. He is the unquestioned alpha of the Thunder and literally contributes in every statistical category. What if the Thunder are good? And he averages 30 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 1.5 steals while shooting 50% from the field?
I’m bullish on the Cleveland offense as a whole, with the increased pace and space. Mitchell is THE guy for the Cavaliers and will put up the numbers. It’s well within the range of outcomes that the Cavaliers are the best team, not only in the East, but in the league.
Edwards broke out last season and has taken over alpha duties for the Timberwolves. The numbers will be there and Edwards is already in the consciousness of voters due to his stint with Team USA over the summer. If the Timberwolves are good and Edwards puts up the numbers he’s expected to, it’s not out of the question.
Coach of the Year odds
If Mark Daigneault wins Coach of the Year, that means the Thunder were really good, which correlates to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander getting MVP votes. I think for Adrian Griffin to win this award, the Bucks will have to be one of the best defensive teams in the league. I have a hard time seeing that.
Now for some longshots, starting with last year’s winner Mike Brown (+4000). Brown turned around the Kings to the point that we actually cared about them last season and turned “light the beam” into a thing. The offense was a big reason for the improvement, but what if the defense improves and they win over 50 games and are true contenders in the tough Western Conference?
Will Hardy (+3000) is such a good coach and did an amazing job last season with the Jazz. They were expected to be tanking for Wembanyama, but instead won a respectable 37 games. What if the Jazz take another step up and are a .500 team?
I really like the Tyronn Lue bet (+3000) because if Kawhi Leonard and Paul George stay healthy, this team is going to win a ton of games. And Lue will be the primary beneficiary.
Ime Udoka’s odds (+1800) aren’t that long for good reason. The Rockets have won 22, 20 and 17 games the last three seasons, so there’s really only one place to go, up. The Rockets brought in a ton of veteran players and added exciting youth to the roster. The defense has been very good in the preseason and you can tell there’s been a marked improvement in system and fundamentals.
Defensive Player of the Year odds
Jaren Jackson Jr. led the league in blocks last season at 3 per game en route to winning the award.
The Giannis odds (+700) are interesting. Adrian Griffin is employing a new defensive scheme in Milwaukee. That could be good or bad. Giannis finished with 0.8 steals and 0.8 blocks last season. Was that due to the knee injury or something else? With Lillard being able to shoulder some of the offensive load, is the expectation that Giannis can be freed to be more of a defensive presence? Too many questions for me.
Edwards (+10000) is a defensive maven and racks up a ton of steals. He also blocks well for a guard. His athleticism could produce a ton of highlight-worthy plays on defense that could accentuate the numbers that he puts up.
Holmgren (+4000) has an amazing defensive IQ, length and ability to cover so much ground that he could be among the league leaders in blocks. The Thunder could also be very good, which would heighten awareness.
Walker Kessler (+2500) produced historic block rates in college, and that prowess translated in the league. He should play close to 30 minutes per game and could overtake Jackson Jr. for the league lead in blocks.
Wembanyama (+2000) is a freak of nature who possesses the agility to change directions and cover a ton of ground while having an 8-foot wingspan. He could lap the field in blocks per game, while doing it with every eyeball focused on him.
Most Improved Player odds
Didn’t Mikal Bridges break out last season?
Cade Cunningham is returning from injury and is looking like a clear candidate for a third-year break out. He has the keys to the offense and will rack up a ton of counting stats.
If James Harden gets traded, Tyrese Maxey will likely garner a massive usage rate.
I feel like Reaves broke out last year, too, and it may be tough to win an award like this while playing alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis. That said, the team has talked about using him at point guard more often and because he’s playing alongside LeBron and AD, he can showcase his skills to a larger audience.
Jordan Poole seems like the most obvious candidate to win this award, as many of the other candidates already broke out. It comes down to the definition of Most Improved. Poole also scored 20.4 points while dishing out 4.5 dimes last year, so it’s not like he was a scrub. The narrative is a negative one, though, and he gets a fresh start in Washington. He will likely garner a sky-high usage rate and will have every opportunity to make it rain counting stats.
As for longshots, Ben Simmons (+5000) has dealt with injuries the last few years and been the laughingstock of the league. He looks healthy now and if he returns to the vintage years, he could win this award in a landslide.
Jonathan Kuminga (+3500) is an athletic freak who wows with some of the things he can do on the court. Playing time could be an issue, but if he is a significant part of the rotation and displays his skills, Kuminga is a prime candidate to win.
Alperen Şengün (+2000) is called Baby Jokić for a reason. He will be playing for a new coach in a new system with the Rockets. He has a chance if he’s put in the best position for success at both ends of the court.
(Photo of Jayson Tatum: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
