By the end of today, we’ll officially be one week into the 2023-24 NBA season. And hopefully, you’ll be a little bit wealthier thanks to our NBA best bets today and expert picks for Monday, October 30.
Let’s preview today’s NBA games with the best NBA bets and expert picks for Monday.
NBA Best Bets Today | Monday, October 30
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NBA betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
NBA Expert Picks for Monday
By Joe Dellera
LaMelo Ball has been on a light minutes limit to start the season, but that has not stopped him from getting his shots up. He is clearly the primary option for the Hornets on the offensive side of the ball. In two games, he’s made four and two 3s on 11 and 7 attempts. Those attempts comprise nearly 50% of his shots, something he seems to have maintained since last season, where he averaged 4 makes on 10.6 attempts per game. While the minutes limit may cap his ceiling, I still expect LaMelo to take plenty of 3s.
I like this play even though Brooklyn is supposed to have elite point-of-attack defense. Although it’s a small sample size, they’ve struggled to run their opponents off the 3-point line so far this season, and their opponents have taken 40% of their shots from 3 and made over 40% of those looks, per Cleaning the Glass. While I expect Brooklyn’s shot profile to regulate, even last season, their opponents shot 37% from 3 which was below league average.
LaMelo made 4+ in 69.4% of games last season, and even if we cap his minutes at 35 he’s cleared this total in 7/11 games between this season and last. I expect him to get his shots up and I’ll gladly take this at +125.
Pick: Lamelo Ball Over 3.5 3s
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The Celtics are a double-digit favorite against the Wizards, who many of us expect to suck this season despite actually liking some of their players.
Jordan Poole doesn’t appear to be one of them, and you’re seeing why.
Poole shot 7-for-18 to the tune of 18 points in the season opener, followed up by a 27-point performance on 8-for-23. The Pacers and Grizzlies aren’t the Celtics defensively, and tonight feels like it has 14 on 5-for-19 potential, thanks to Jrue Holiday, Derrick White and others.
It’s not a sure thing — it’s damn October — but of the scenarios I feel most comfortable taking a Poole under, this is one of them.
Pick: Jordan Poole Under 22.5 points
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I really like what I’ve seen from the Pelicans so far this season. They’re one of the most impressive undefeated teams so far, and it’s on the back of their impressive defense. New Orleans is second in Defensive Rating (95.0), and while it’s a small sample size of just two games and that number will easily get much higher, it’s not inconceivable for the Pelicans to finish with the second best defense in the league. Post-trade deadline last season, they were seventh in defense despite going just 13-13.
The Pelicans’ efficiency on offense will be key, but I think having more time with Zion Williamson will help, and we should see their struggling offense (102.0) improve throughout the season. Monday, they’ll face their biggest challenge yet in Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors who have gone 2-1 thanks to their defense, despite Draymond Green missing the first two games with an ankle injury.
I lean to the Pelicans in this game with the Warriors on a back-to-back. Even without the schedule spot, I make the Pelicans -4.8 on home court for the full game, but I’m targeting them in the first half based on a few trends.
Since the 2020-21 season, when the Warriors are road dogs, they’re just 24-33-3 against the spread in the first half and fading them yields a 10.5% ROI. Taking it a step further, when Golden State is coming off a win of 10 or more, they’re just 20-30-3 ATS with an ROI of 17% if you faded them in every spot, according to BetLabs.
I’ll take the Pelicans down to -2.5 in the first half.
Pick: Pelicans First Half Spread | Play to -2.5
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By Chris Baker
The Lakers have been unimpressive to begin the year, as they have gone 0-3 ATS despite being fully healthy.
Austin Reaves has not taken the leap we were all promised he would take, and LeBron is clearly not a top-10 level player anymore. AD’s defensive impact has been fine, but I expect that to be less of a factor in this one with Orlando’s bigs and their ability to stretch the floor. I’ve seen nothing from this Lakers team that makes me want to trust them on the second night of a back to back.
This Magic team is young and extremely athletic and this is exactly the type of team I want to back against an older Lakers squad coming off a grueling game against one of the fastest teams in the NBA.
Trust the young Magic and their fresh legs on the road here.
Pick: Magic +3.5
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