NBA Best Bets
It’s a new day and another set of NBA games for us to dive into. Monday’s slate is jam packed with 12 matchups, as the evening hits its stride with Lakers vs. Heat in primetime on NBA TV, however, two of our experts are targeting Celtics vs. Timberwolves on League Pass a little bit later down the line.
Let’s dive right into tonight’s games with the best NBA bets and expert picks for Monday, November 6.
By Jim Turvey
This is an incredibly high total, but one that should be even higher. The two teams are a combined 9-2 to the over this season, but more importantly, they are the second- and fifth-fastest teams by pace. This is also a matchup of two teams with far better offense than defense (to the very extreme for the Pacers, who rank 7th in offensive rating but dead-last in defensive rating), with similar patterns when healthy last season.
We talk a lot about how the books struggle a lot at the extremes (think Iowa college football under this past weekend), and when these two fast-paced, good-offense, bad-defense teams get together, it’s hard to set a reasonable line. I don’t hate bettors waiting a bit, however, as the early sharp money has come in on the under, an atypical move I’m going against.
Joe Dellera also kicked around the idea of this being the perfect game for Victor Wembanyama to sit out, having just played an overtime game against the Raptors on Sunday, preceded by a then-season-high 34 minutes against the Suns on Thursday.
If Wemby sits, this number will start to trend back up, but it will be worth it, given the absolutely insane on-off numbers for Wemby as it relates to the Spurs defense this season. He’s basically a 7-3 bandage covering the worst defense in the league right now. If Wemby plays, I like this to over 238.5, but if he sits, I’d play over 241.
I know, -155 isn’t amazing, but I’ll come out the gate and say two things: One, I like this even at 5.0 and potentially up to 5.5. And two, I think this will probably climb to 5.0 or 5.5 before tip-off — hopefully at a better number.
Tyler Herro is having a good individual season so far, and in Miami’s latest outing, his 24-10-9 line actually coincided with a Heat win. In six games this season, Herro has gotten at least five boards in four of them. He just had 10 against the Wizards and had eight against the Bucks on October 30.
For the slights going his way, some deserved, Herro is a quality rebounding guard who averages five rebounds per game for his career, and has averaged that number or better every year following his rookie campaign in 2019-20. I like this over.
Pick: Tyler Herro Over 4.5 Rebounds (-155)
Celtics vs. Timberwolves
The Celtics own a perfect record of 5-0 on the season. Their defense has been excellent and they’ve had the best offense in the league so far. Their +7.6 Adjusted Net Rating is 2.1 points better than the second place Denver Nuggets. However, they’ve benefited from a relatively soft schedule up until now. The website Dunks and Threes calculates every team’s strength of schedule rating based on opponents and the Celtics are just 28th overall (-2.1), meaning only two other teams have had an easier schedule.
Despite the wins, the Celtics have somewhat underperformed so far, which has shown up in their against-the-spread record. The Celtics are just 2-1-2 ATS and 1-0-2 on the road. The Wolves are on the opposite end of the spectrum. At 3-2 straight up and ATS, they’ve had the eighth-toughest schedule.
Minnesota ranks fourth in Adjusted Net Rating and have the best defense through five games, but that defense has also faced the third-best group of offenses, which means they might be even better than we’ve seen. What matters more, they’re a perfect 3-0 straight up and ATS at home. I’ll take the points and back the Wolves at any underdog price and sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well.
Pick: Timberwolves +4 (-110)
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Celtics vs. Timberwolves
By Joe Dellera
The Minnesota Timberwolves are set to face off against the Boston Celtics in an exciting regular season showdown on Monday night. One matchup that I’m eying is between Kristaps Porzingis and Rudy Gobert. Historically, Gobert has won this matchup, especially from a rebounding perspective.
Gobert has averaged 13.3 rebounds against Porzingis and has recorded over 11.5 Rebounds in seven of eleven career games against him. In their most recent head-to-head contest Gobert secured 19 boards. Additionally, Gobert has exceeded this line in four of five games this season while averaging 12.4 per game.
Also of note, although Boston is the top team in the league in Rebound Percentage at 55.2%, Minnesota ranks 7th at 52.1%, and the Wolves have played a much tougher schedule. I expect this to be a tightly contested game and for Minnesota to maintain the edge on the glass with Rudy Gobert.
Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Rebounds (+105)
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