Explaining the inexplicable Denver Broncos and other NFL mysteries: Sando’s Pick Six – The Athletic

Cover 7 | Monday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Monday, Mike Sando breaks down the six most impactful takeaways from the week.

One day, the Denver Broncos are losing by 50 and in disarray. Two months later, they are riding a five-game winning streak into the AFC playoff picture, ahead of the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. Some of these NFL storylines seem inexplicable, but we’ve got theories, insights and data to explain an in-season reversal of historic proportions.

The Pick Six column for Week 12 begins with an examination of the Broncos, complete with an appreciation for the coaching, some perspective regarding quarterback Russell Wilson and, with Wilson’s former team limping along at the moment, a quick look at the Seattle Seahawks’ offense by comparison.

The full menu this week:

• Broncos up, Seahawks down: An update
• Playoff picture after Bills-Eagles
• On the Giants’ coaching dissension
• Steelers join 400 club! Some history
• Five undeniable Cowboys truths
• Two-minute drill: Julian Edelman knows

1. Russell Wilson and the Broncos suddenly have the same 6-5 record as the Seahawks, so let’s take a look at some of the particulars.

Football is a team game, and there’s credit to go around, but there’s no question where this analysis must begin.

• Defensive reversal: We see that below when plotting the Broncos’ cumulative offensive and defensive EPA (expected points added) across all 11 games, per TruMedia. We see the defense cratering in that 70-20 defeat to the Miami Dolphins. We then see four games of defensive stabilization, followed by a steady rise. At this rate, the defense will overtake the offense for season-long cumulative production even with that Miami game on the ledger.

It’s difficult to know why the defense played so poorly and why it’s playing so well now. Facing the Dolphins’ supercharged presnap motions so early in the season, in the Miami heat, while implementing a new scheme was surely part of the problem early. Demoting $70 million pass-rusher Randy Gregory after the Miami debacle and then cutting him one week later could have jolted the locker room and empowered the staff, providing some of the solution.

There is no way to quantify these sorts of moves.

The Chicago Bears improved after trading receiver Chase Claypool. The Pittsburgh Steelers became more productive on offense after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada. The Buffalo Bills have topped 30 points in successive games after failing to do so since Week 4. Was it because they fired Ken Dorsey?

“We sometimes try to make this too much of a non-human game,” an offensive coach said. “We should not unfairly indict Randy Gregory here, but they moved on from him and they look like a different team.”

• Master coach: Sean Payton hardly resembled a master at his craft when losing track of the down at Kansas City and wasting a timeout, or when his offense bled through timeouts and struggled to get plays called on time. But he is resembling one now for the totality of this turnaround, which has included setting a new course for style of play.

Two years ago, when Payton’s tenure with New Orleans was winding down, his Saints beat Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a touchdown pass from Trevor Siemian, who had not thrown one in four years, to fullback Alex Armah, who had not caught one ever.

That victory was another day at work for a master coach. There was not much sustainable about it, but Payton showed long ago he could win more than one way. He was 10-3 with Teddy Bridgewater and Jameis Winston in the Saints’ lineup when given enough defensive support. That Payton is doing the same thing now with this version of Wilson, and with a defense that not long ago had some wondering whether coordinator Vance Joseph would last the season, brings him into the conversation for Coach of the Year, at least for the moment.

• Checking it down: Denver shifting to a lower-risk offense at first seemed to be a rebuke of Wilson. It still might be that in the bigger picture. But it was also about playing complementary football. Minimize risk, lean into your strength on defense and let your quarterback make a few plays as situations warrant.

“They don’t want the quarterback and the offense to mess it up after they were turning it over early in the year,” an opposing defensive coach said. “(Wilson) is throwing checkdowns as quick as I’ve ever seen him.”

The chart below shows Wilson’s average air yards per attempt (X-axis) and per completion (Y-axis) for every season of his career. The 2023 averages — 6.7 per attempt, 4.7 per completion — reside by themselves in the lower-left corner.

Before this season, Wilson had always thrown the ball much farther past the line of scrimmage — up to 3.2 yards farther on average, a massive difference.

“Sean is calling the game almost as if Russell is a rookie quarterback,” a different opposing defensive coach said. “Basically, it’s run, run and if he’s not throwing it either one or two in a progression, he can scramble, which plays to his strengths. I hate to use this term, but he’s a game manager. He’s a very good one, too.”

• Wilson adjusting: Wilson picked his spots effectively in the 29-12 victory against Cleveland on Sunday. There was a 31-yard strike to Courtland Sutton on third-and-8, a deep ball to Sutton for a 34-yard interference penalty on third-and-10, and a touchdown pass to tight end Adam Trautman on third-and-goal from the 8.

These were huge plays in a game that was close until the fourth quarter. Wilson completed only 13 of 22 passes for 134 yards, but it was enough.

As we zoom out to see where every team falls on that air yards scatter plot, Denver has surprising company in that lower-left corner. The Kansas City Chiefs are down there as well, as they play to their defensive strength while breaking in young receivers against defenses focused on stopping the pass.

It’s unclear whether the Broncos’ offense will grow into something more, but for the first time in more than a year, the team’s 2022 trade for Wilson and decision to extend his contract is no longer the consuming story. Denver’s success on the field is the story.

• Seattle comparison: With Denver surging and Seattle having lost three of its past four, the Broncos and their scaled-back offense actually outrank Seattle through 11 games this season. The chart below shows cumulative EPA for both offenses. Denver has stabilized some after a brutal 2022 season. Seattle has regressed.

One of the knocks on the 5-foot-11 Wilson is that he doesn’t see the middle of the field very well. His propensity for targeting the perimeter became a storyline late in his Seattle tenure. Perhaps surprisingly, Seattle’s current quarterback, Geno Smith, is throwing the ball outside the yard-line numbers 67 percent of the time, matching the highest full-season figure for Wilson since at least 2019, the earliest year this charting exists in our TruMedia dataset. That subject arose when I asked an opposing defensive coach for his read on Seattle’s offense after the team fell to 6-5 with a rough outing against the San Francisco 49ers.

“If you are good enough on the outside (at cornerback) to challenge those (Seattle) receivers, Geno starts to look more like he did in past years, and I think that is what is going on a little bit with him throwing outside the numbers so much,” this defensive coach said. “Overall, I like what they do. They have a good mix, and they are scripted pretty well. The lead back (Kenneth Walker) is really good. They miss him. I think they will pull back out of it a little bit.”

With coach Pete Carroll publicly questioning how offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is using the five eligible receivers, the Seahawks are still looking for their offensive identity. The Broncos have found theirs, and though it’s not anything to aspire to, it’s part of a winning equation Payton has used to beat Green Bay, Kansas City, Buffalo, Minnesota and Cleveland in successive weeks. Just as nobody expected.

2. The Eagles are relentless and will need to stay that way.

Is there a tougher, more resilient upper-echelon team than the 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles? Six days after outlasting Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium, they outlasted the Buffalo Bills in overtime. Next up: San Francisco, then Dallas. It’s quite the run for a team that spent so much emotionally while losing the Super Bowl last season.

Two plays stand out from this recent stretch for Philly. Chiefs receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropping what likely would have been the winning touchdown pass was one. Bills receiver Gabe Davis veering left instead of right on an option route for what would have been the winning touchdown was the other.

The Eagles are making those types of plays. They will need to keep making them. After knocking off two preseason favorites from the AFC, Philly plays its remaining six games in its own conference. The Eagles are 6-0 against the NFC. The 49ers are 6-1. Handing San Francisco a second conference defeat would be hugely helpful in securing the top seed.

The Chiefs, looking to keep alive their streak of never playing a road playoff game in the Patrick Mahomes era, remain in solid shape on the AFC side. They are currently second in the conference behind Baltimore, but no team in the NFL plays a tougher remaining schedule than the Ravens, and no AFC team plays an easier one than the Chiefs, using current won-lost records.

As teams like Indianapolis (currently seventh in the AFC) jockey with Houston, Denver, Buffalo and Cleveland for playoff berths in the AFC, and with a long list of NFC teams similarly on the fringe, recent history helps to set expectations.

The table below shows what percentage of teams with various won-lost records reached the playoffs since the NFL expanded from six to seven entrants from each conference beginning with the 2020 season.

3. Jay Glazer’s report about tension between Brian Daboll and Wink Martindale recalls Bill Belichick, Nick Saban and the Patriot Way, game ball or no game ball.

Back in January, The Athletic published a story detailing the “genius” behind Daboll’s hiring process in putting together a coaching staff. The basic idea was that Daboll had smartly bucked convention by seeking the best coaches he could find, instead of focusing more on hiring coaches he already knew well.

Eleven months later, a brutal 2023 season could be testing what in many cases are relatively new relationships. Glazer’s report for Fox suggesting defensive coordinator Wink Martindale wants out and could leave the team before season’s end was the sort of thing that doesn’t get into the hands of a reporter with Glazer’s standing by accident. The tack Daboll took in hiring could be working against him now, for reasons we’ll explore below.

When Jay Glazer says it, it’s fact. Wild. pic.twitter.com/geiKQJZSWn

— Talkin’ Giants (@TalkinGiants) November 26, 2023

“These guys are in a bad place — bad place to the point where I don’t see them actually continuing their relationship after this season, maybe even during this season,” Glazer said of Daboll and Martindale, who never worked together previously. “Could be a mutual parting of the ways. When I talk to people inside that organization, they are saying the tension between these two, you can feel it. It is just getting worse and it’s just odd that it has happened considering how much success they had together last year.”

It’s easy to see how the hiring process might actually be working against Daboll in tough times.

“Daboll learned from Bill (Belichick) and Nick (Saban), and we all remember Nick undressing Lane Kiffin and Daboll himself at Alabama,” a veteran coach who knows members of the Giants’ staff said. “A guy as established as Wink says, ‘You can yell at the young coaches, but not me.’”

Welcome to the Patriot Way, in other words.

After the Giants pulled out a 10-7 victory against the Patriots on Sunday, Daboll presented a game ball to Martindale in the winning locker room.

Punctuated with a game ball: pic.twitter.com/ZiVqKa0Y6E

— Dan Duggan (@DDuggan21) November 26, 2023

Daboll joked to reporters that his biggest disagreement with Martindale centered around the last slice of pizza.

Losing can pull apart a team, exposing personal agendas as competitive people see career aspirations slipping away. But if the working relationship is indeed a big problem, as Glazer indicated, that is problematic regardless. The report shines a light on the staff heading toward the final month of the season. Will there be massive changes? What storylines will emerge? Will staff members without strong ties to Daboll seek change?

Beyond Martindale, Daboll’s other coordinators, Mike Kafka on offense and Thomas McGaughey on special teams, had never coached with Daboll previously. Tight ends coach Andy Bischoff, receivers coach Mike Groh and defensive line coach Andre Patterson also did not have significant ties to Daboll. The same was true for running backs coach DeAndre Smith, who left after last season for the same job with the Indianapolis Colts. Smith had worked with Colts coach Shane Steichen previously.

Being terrible, winning their way out of the top pick in the draft regardless and having Glazer report on potential mutiny in the coaching ranks is not the way the Giants anticipated heading into their bye week. But nothing about this season has gone to plan so far.

4. Time to recognize some undeniable truths about the 8-3 Dallas Cowboys.

Jerry Jones’ over-the-top ownership antics make the Cowboys inviting targets. We’ve heard plenty about the team’s easy schedule (Dallas has not defeated a team that currently has a winning record, after collecting five such victories last season). The giant gap between Jones’ in-season bluster and the Cowboys’ recent postseason record justifies skepticism.

With those qualifiers out of the way, let’s hit those undeniable truths:

• Dallas ranks No. 1 in defensive EPA per play since Dan Quinn became defensive coordinator in 2021. The team ranked 23rd the year before Quinn arrived. That’s a huge improvement and a leading reason Dallas ranks third behind Kansas City and Philadelphia in winning percentage over that span.

• Dallas has scored 15 touchdowns on defense since Quinn arrived. That is one more than the Cowboys managed over the eight previous seasons. It is five more defensive touchdowns than any other team has scored since 2021 (New England has 10). It is triple the league average since then.

• The Cowboys’ defense the past three seasons ranks fourth in EPA per play even if we exclude defensive touchdowns across the league over that span. Yes, those big plays carry outsized value, but this Dallas defense isn’t overly reliant on them for its lofty standing. This jibes with the team’s No. 4 ranking since 2020 in defensive success rate, which is the percentage of plays that reduced the opponent’s chances for scoring.

• Quarterback Dak Prescott’s current six-game stretch of games is the best of his career within a season for passer rating (122.6), touchdown passes (18), adjusted yards per pass attempt (10.2) and net adjusted yards per pass attempt (9.2), per Pro Football Reference. Prescott, in his first season with coach Mike McCarthy handling play-calling, has started the first 11 games of a season for the first time since 2019.

• Dallas is averaging 27.0 offensive points per game, its best figure through the first 11 games of a season since 2007. Having a strong defense can enable scoring by creating short fields, but with Dallas scoring so many touchdowns on defense, including a record five pick-sixes for cornerback Daron Bland, the Cowboys’ average starting field position is merely good (12th), not elite.

None of this suggests the Cowboys are likely to beat the Eagles or 49ers in a playoff game. It’s notable that Dallas ranks only 23rd in rushing defense success rate, which could matter more in playoff games against those NFC powers. The Dallas offense likely will need to play well enough to build leads so that Quinn can leverage the Cowboys’ big advantage in pass-rushing.

The Cowboys can worry about that in January. Right now, they are producing as well on both sides of the ball as they have in a long time.

5. The Steelers’ first 400-yard game since before Matt Canada’s hiring as offensive coordinator was … something.

The streak finally ended at 58 games, fourth-longest in the NFL since the league made significant rules changes helping offenses in 1978.

Below we see what company the Steelers were keeping before they gained 421 yards in their 16-10 victory against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.

Pittsburgh went 34-23-1 (.595) across those 58 games. The other nine teams in the table combined to go 184-359 (.339), without any approaching .500 across those games.

Though we don’t evaluate offenses by how frequently they reach 400 yards, the streak came to symbolize an offense that was frustrating to watch. An opposing defensive coach said the Steelers under Canada seemed to be picking plays off a list throughout the game, rather than making adjustments off the early script.

The Steelers ranked 25th in offensive EPA per play under Canada and 23rd during the 58-game streak without a 400-yard game. They ranked fifth on defense during the streak, which helps explain how they were able to win.

“That is what happens when you build your program around a tough, blue-collar attitude and your defense is always strong with those two elite pass-rushers,” an exec said. “The other team cracks and starts passing, and you let those dogs eat.”

Suddenly eclipsing 400 yards only days after Canada’s 44-game tenure ended had to signify something, even if the yardage was camouflaged inside a 16-10 final score that seemed to suggest not all that much had changed. Here’s what stood out:

• 278 yards for quarterback Kenny Pickett, second-most for him in a game, and his most without a turnover;

• 120 yards receiving for tight end Pat Freiermuth, far beyond his previous high (85);

• 99 yards rushing on 15 touches for running back Najee Harris, his fifth-highest total;

• Eight explosive plays, tied for second-most in the 45 games dating to Canada’s hiring;

• Eight third-down conversions, tied for sixth since Canada was hired.

A massive 6.5-point EPA swing associated with running back Jaylen Warren’s lost fumble deep in Bengals territory on Pittsburgh’s opening drive made this a break-even offensive EPA game. The final EPA totals: plus-0.01 on offense, plus-8.7 on defense and minus-2.7 on special teams. It all adds up to a plus-6.0 net, which mirrors the game’s score differential.

6. Two-minute drill: Even Julian Edelman is on Patriots draft watch

The New England Patriots’ refusal to announce a starting quarterback heading into Week 12 was classic Bill Belichick. It also didn’t matter. Mac Jones? Bailey Zappe? How would either appreciably change the game plan for an opposing defensive coordinator?

Retired Patriots great Julian Edelman captured the situation with a pregame post suggesting the team would win by losing to the Giants.

It hurts to say… but today, a win = a loss. Were onto April 25th, 2024. pic.twitter.com/v5rNhWYB0P

— Julian Edelman (@Edelman11) November 26, 2023

Edelman was correct. New England now sits third in the draft order behind Carolina, which traded its pick to the Chicago Bears, and Arizona. The Patriots play the Chargers, Steelers, Chiefs, Broncos, Bills and Jets. They will probably win again before the season is complete, or will they?

New England allowed 10 points in each of its past two games and lost both. The team had won 22 consecutive regular-season and playoff games dating to 2001 when allowing exactly 10. …

• The athleticism Kyler Murray showed immediately upon his return from ACL surgery suggested the Cardinals would be rising in the standings. Losing 37-14 at home to the Rams makes that seem less certain.

Regaining athleticism is not the same as regaining the sharpness that comes with practice. Joe Burrow seemed rusty after missing much of the Bengals’ training camp. Murray has been practicing for seven weeks and playing for three in a new scheme, without throwing to receivers at speed for many months before that. …

• Most victories this season against teams that currently have winning records: Kansas City, Cleveland, Baltimore, San Francisco, Jacksonville and Philadelphia with four apiece.

Fewest: New England, Dallas, Tennessee, Chicago and the Giants with none. The Dolphins, Raiders and Commanders improbably left behind these ranks Sunday when Denver won to reach 6-5 for the season, as all those teams beat the Broncos. …

• The Houston Texans fell 24-21 to Jacksonville, but they added 12 more explosive plays on offense, tied with Atlanta for the most in Week 12. The Texans now have 100 plays this season gaining at least 16 yards through the air or 12 on the ground. That is two behind the Dolphins’ league-leading total and one of the season’s biggest surprises. …

For the second time in three seasons, the Jaguars faced an interesting quandary shortly before halftime. With the ball inside the opponent’s 1-yard line and with one play to possibly break open a close game, do you go for the touchdown or settle for the chip-shot field goal?

Two different Jaguars coaches both went for the touchdown. Both efforts failed.

In 2021, the failure to extend a 14-0 lead against Cincinnati on a fourth-and-goal shotgun run proved problematic in an eventual 24-21 defeat. Against Houston on Sunday, the Jaguars led 13-7 and had first-and-goal with one second left before halftime when they pitched the ball to Travis Etienne, who was swarmed by defenders and stopped short of the goal line. Houston then opened the second half with a touchdown drive, recalling the Cincinnati experience from two years ago.

“The only ‘good decision’ in that situation is to score the touchdown,” a coach who advises on such decisions said. …

• Rashee Rice’s eight catches for 107 yards and a touchdown stood out for the Chiefs. Rice became the first Kansas City wide receiver to have three receptions gaining at least 16 yards in a game this season. Mahomes matched a season high with seven explosive pass completions. His 24.1 percent explosive rate was his highest this season by far. His 13.7 percent rate for the season ranks 23rd, just ahead of Derek Carr, Aidan O’Connell and Deshaun Watson. …

• The Colts added 8.0 EPA on fourth-down go-for-its in a game they won by seven points, 27-20. That included gains of 30 and 24 yards on fourth-and-1. Count how many defenders Tampa Bay had at the line of scrimmage for this fourth-and-inches pass over the top to tight end Mo Alie-Cox.

4th and inches?

Welcome to Mo’s.

📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/s1eeobQG2I

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 26, 2023

• Lamar Jackson’s sorry-cannot-do-it refusal to buy into receiver Zay Flowers’ bouquet toss touchdown celebration in Baltimore’s victory against the Chargers made for one of the best sideline exchanges of the season.

Lamar’s reaction to Zay Flowers’ TD celebration 😂

📺: #BALvsLAC on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/4A9GOmQsZC pic.twitter.com/iDArq8IyF2

— NFL (@NFL) November 27, 2023

Flowers’ penalty-kick celebration and Mike Tirico’s call of it were much, much better.

Another iconic cele for @ZayFlowers 😂 pic.twitter.com/OLXeVrJvwu

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 27, 2023

Best of all for the Ravens: Flowers having more than one chance to celebrate a touchdown in the same game. Baltimore will need more of that from the rookie with top target Mark Andrews likely finished for the season.

(Top photo: Steve Nurenberg / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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