Week 12 of the NFL season was defined by favorites. On Sunday’s slate, a whopping 12 of 15 favorites covered against the spread (ATS) and won outright. This is the first time that’s happened since Week 12 of 2017.
If the Vikings win and cover as three-point favorites Monday night against the Bears, it’ll be the first time in the Super Bowl era that 13 or more favorites covered the spread in a single week.
It was another profitable week for yours truly as I finished Week 12 with a record of 4-1-1 and am now 22-7-1 since Week 8.
Here’s my record through the first 12 weeks of the NFL season:
2023 record: 37-34-2
Against the spread: 30-29-2
Bonus Bets: 7-5
Six organizations, including the New York Giants, will be on bye this weekend. Here are my six teams to bet on against the spread for Week 13, including one over/under to wager on:
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
When looking at the 13-game slate, the first game that stands out is the NFC Championship rematch from last season. the Eagles getting points at home in this spot.
While it wasn’t the prettiest of victories, the Eagles still were able to get the “push” as they won by a field goal, 37-34, in overtime Sunday after closing as three-point favorites against the Bills.
QB Jalen Hurts continues to make history as he led Philly to its eighth consecutive victory when down by double digits, with no QB having more than four such comebacks in league history.
Now opening the week as home underdogs, this is a must-bet spot for me with the Eagles.
More:The amazing way Eagles’ Jalen Hurts is outdoing Brady, Manning — and every other NFL QB
Hurts has won 12 of his last 13 regular-season home starts dating back to the beginning of the 2022 season.
The big concern here is the health of starting right tackle Lane Johnson. The former 2013 fourth-overall pick was a late scratch last Sunday with groin soreness and is considered day-to-day. This could be a huge issue against a 49ers defensive line that features the likes of Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Chase Young and former Eagles defensive lineman Javon Hargrave.
Even if Johnson is forced to miss this NFC title game rematch, getting the Eagles as underdogs at Lincoln Financial Field is way too good to pass up.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the best available price of -102 (Bet $102 to win $100) to cover the +2.5 spread.
Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Week 13 kicks off Thursday night with two teams who both played on Thanksgiving Day, but had very different outcomes.
Last Thursday, the Cowboys dominated the Commanders from start to finish in a 45-10 victory, while the Seahawks got destroyed at home, 31-13, by the 49ers.
As I mentioned last week about taking Dallas as a double-digit home favorite, taking them here as just over touchdown favorites is another opportunity you can’t pass up.
The Cowboys have arguably been the best team at home in the NFL this season, going 5-0 ATS and straight up, outscoring opponents, 205-60, and averaging 41 points per game at AT&T Stadium.
Seattle is 5-5-1 against the spread this year, but has failed to cover the spread in five of its previous seven contests.
Following their Week 5 bye, the Seahawks are 3-4, but notably have lost all three road games by a combined score of 71-32.
Facing a so-so Seattle defense, lay the points with the Cowboys’ league-best offense at home in this spot.
FanDuel Sportsbook is the only sportsbook as of Monday afternoon that still has this line at -7.5 with a price of -115 (Bet $115 to win $100).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) vs. Carolina Panthers
One of the best bets to make this year has been to fade the Panthers.
Carolina is a woeful 1-8-2 ATS and has not covered on the road this season (0-5-1).
The Buccaneers didn’t cover in their 27-20 loss to the Colts in Week 12 but are still 7-4 against the spread in 2023.
Tampa Bay has covered in four of its last five contests and has owned this divisional matchup, winning seven of the prior 10 meetings − including three straight at Raymond James Stadium.
While the Panthers might have a fire lit under them after firing head coach Frank Reich on Monday, coming off their 17-10 loss in Week 12, it won’t be enough even against a team in Tampa Bay that’s dropped six of its past seven games since its Week 5 bye.
FanDuel and Caesars Sportsbook offer the best price of -110 (Bet $110 to net $100) for the Buccaneers to cover the -5 spread.
Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs. Washington Commanders
Easily the riskiest bet of the group.
Washington was overmatched in its beatdown at the hands of the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Now back at home after a mini bye-week with 10 days of rest, I’d still fade the Commanders here.
The Dolphins are coming off a 34-13 victory over the Jets in the NFL’s first game on Black Friday, and are 3-2 ATS on the road.
This is a mismatch between Miami’s offense and Washington’s defense. The Dolphins are averaging the second-most points per game in the NFL (30.8 PPG), while the Commanders’ defense gives up 29.2 PPG, the highest mark in the league.
Is this a lot of points to lay with Miami on the road in December? Absolutely. But taking on a defense that’s surrendered 29 or more points in four of their previous five games is a spot where you should be confident for the Dolphins to cover this massive spread.
Multiple sportsbooks have the Dolphins -9.5 spread at -110.
Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Tied for the most points scored on Sunday was the Rams when they demolished the Cardinals, 37-14, in Arizona.
It was the Rams’ best offensive performance of the season with big help from RB Kyren Williams, who returned from IR and recorded a career-high 204 total yards from scrimmage and scored twice.
While there’s no doubt they’ll face a much better defense in the Browns, it should be noted that Cleveland’s defense has been beatable in recent weeks. They’ve conceded 29+ points in two of their last three matchups and are allowing 29.6 PPG on the road in 2023.
More importantly, Myles Garrett, currently the front-runner for NFL Defensive Player of the Year, suffered a shoulder injury against the Broncos and could miss this game. Add in the fact that starting QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson suffered a concussion, it could be Joe Flacco time for Cleveland potentially without their best defensive player.
With one team relatively healthy while the other is not, I’d lay the points now with the Rams before this line goes any higher with the potential news of Garrett and Thompson-Robinson having to miss this game.
A handful of sportsbooks have the Rams with a price of -110 to cover the -4.5 spread.
Bonus Bet: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers UNDER 42.5 points (-109)
Easily the most profitable bet this season has been to wager on the under in primetime matchups.
The total has gone below the projected number in 28 of 37 night games this year, good for 76 percent of the time.
Both the Chiefs and Packers have been more profitable to the under with Kansas City going under in eight of 11 contests.
When it comes to points per game allowed, the Chiefs and Packers defenses both rank inside the top-10 with fewer than 21 PPG given up to opponents.
I expect Green Bay’s defense to continue to impress after a surprising 29-22 win over the Lions, and Kansas City’s defensive unit to bounce back following a rough first-half performance against the Raiders in Week 12.
While all sportsbooks have this line at 42.5 points, BetRivers has the must bet price of -109 as of Monday afternoon.
