4) Denver is indeed for real
Yup, factual. Denver (6-5) is tied with Philadelphia for the longest active winning streak at five games. And over the past four outings, the Broncos have knocked off four teams that are currently .500 or better: the Browns (7-4), Vikings (6-6), Bills (6-6) and Chiefs (8-3).
This is not a fluke. It’s representative of what we expected from Sean Payton, before his team started off at 1-4 by losing to Josh McDaniels’ Raiders, blowing an 18-point lead to the Commanders, giving up 70 points to the Dolphins and dropping the Nathaniel Hackett revenge game. All of that is deep in the rearview now. Vance Joseph’s defense buttoned up big time, while Russell Wilson is playing clean, efficient football.
I can’t wait for this Sunday’s big game in Houston. What a matchup, with rookie sensation C.J. Stroud going up against Denver’s revitalized defense, which is led by a pair of stars in the secondary (CB Pat Surtain II and S Justin Simmons). Payton has really turned this entire organization around: Suddenly, you can’t count out these Broncos in any matchup.
5) Buffalo’s still dangerous
My love for Josh Allen is well-documented. And the Buffalo star played absolutely brilliantly this past Sunday in Philadelphia. Yes, the Bills (6-6) lost 37-34 in overtime, but don’t blame their quarterback. He gives this team a chance every time out. Unfortunately, I just can’t say the same for his coach.
And thus, the above statement is fiction. Sean McDermott makes it so, at least to me.
With the Eagles trailing by three points on Sunday and frantically trying to get in field goal range in the final minute of regulation, it felt like McDermott helped out the opposition by calling a pair of unnecessary timeouts. Odd stuff to me. Then, after Jake Elliott nailed the game-tying, 59-yard field goal, McDermott ultimately just threw away the final 20 seconds of the game, despite the fact that his quarterback was on a heater and the Bills still had a timeout to spare. What?! Buffalo, of course, ultimately lost in overtime.
Every week, numerous NFL games are decided by the tightest of margins. And in that kind of setting, I just do not believe in McDermott pulling the right levers at winning time. Each of Buffalo’s six losses this season have come by six points or fewer. This is not a coincidence. Remember the “13 seconds” loss at Kansas City in the 2021 Divisional Round? Absolutely gutting, but it also underscores the trend with this coach.
On a bye this week, the Bills face a crucial game in Kansas City two Sundays from now. Allen has the ability to go blow for blow with Patrick Mahomes, no doubt about it. But how can you trust McDermott against Andy Reid?
6) The NFC North has three playoff teams
Fiction. Detroit (8-3) will make it, though my “Lions will get the No. 1 seed” take sure hit a major bump in the road with the Thanksgiving disaster against Green Bay. Still, I have Detroit taking the NFC North crown.
Meanwhile, Minnesota just dropped to 6-6 with a crushing home loss to the lowly Bears on Monday night. Still, I think Justin Jefferson will indeed return to action following the Week 13 bye, and this could allow the Vikings — who currently sit in the No. 7 seed — to lock up a wild-card spot. But that’s it. Two teams — MAX — from the NFC North.
So, what about the 5-6 Packers, currently the first squad out of the NFC playoff field? I’m just not seeing it. Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love deserve credit for weathering a midseason storm and coming out on the other end, with the first-year starter looking like a franchise quarterback over the past two weeks. But I’m not sure I can trust that to continue over the next six weeks. Shoot, this coming Sunday night, Green Bay hosts Kansas City. Even in the comfy confines of Lambeau Field, that’s a TOUGH spot — especially for Love, going against a stifling K.C. defense.
I like the Rams’ chances of nabbing a wild-card slot despite Green Bay currently holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. Matthew Stafford is back. That’s everything. Sean McVay and Co. are ready to roll. And I definitely wouldn’t eliminate the Seahawks (6-5), who currently own the No. 6 seed. Even with all the injuries and the tough remaining schedule, I still value Pete Carroll at this time of year.
7) Jacksonville made the biggest statement in Week 12
This is a fact. Jacksonville needed a win like Sunday’s 24-21 triumph in Houston. Coming on the road, against a rising division rival with an emerging superstar (C.J. Stroud) under center, that was impressive stuff. Image wise, Trevor Lawrence also kind of needed a transcendent performance in a big game. I think 364 yards passing in a winning effort counts.
Now 8-3, Jacksonville is two games clear of Indianapolis and Houston in the AFC South race. And winning the division for the second straight year could just be the beginning. The Jags have all the elements for playoffs success, including a Super Bowl-winning head coach in Doug Pederson. The AFC is wide open at the top — and in general. Jacksonville is flawless on the road this year at 5-0. This team could indeed make a run in January.
