Rosenthal: Rangers face uncertainty in free agency, plus Yankees’ payroll, White Sox’s options for Cease

World Series champions almost always count on a boost in revenue, and often increase their payrolls accordingly. The Texas Rangers, coming off their first Series title, still figure to follow such a path. But the potential termination of their local television rights deal leaves them without full clarity on how much revenue they will generate in 2024.

As such, the Rangers are approaching the free agency market in something of a wait-and-see mode, according to major-league sources who were granted anonymity in order to speak freely. In theory, they still could sign Shohei Ohtani, the top free agent on the market and a player in whom they have interest. Ownership, however, is sorting through how it will approach the market, sources said.

The Rangers and the Guardians are the two teams most in jeopardy of losing their rights deals with Diamond Sports Group, the parent company of the Bally regional sports networks. The Guardians received $55 million from that deal in 2023, according to cleveland.com. The average value of the Rangers’ 20-year contract, which began with the 2011 season, reportedly is $111 million.

If Diamond drops those two clubs, they could be broadcast by Major League Baseball in 2024, as the Padres and Diamondbacks were last season. Or, the teams could strike a deal with another broadcaster to carry games. Neither team at the moment, though, has any idea of what its 2024 broadcast revenue will be.

The lack of resolution influenced the Guardians’ decision on Nov. 14 to part with right-hander Cal Quantrill, who was projected by MLB Trade Rumors to earn $6.6 million in arbitration.

“We don’t yet have clarity on that other than there’s financial uncertainty, so that makes things a bit harder to plan,” Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said. “It’s difficult to plan in a normal year at this point in the offseason as we’re still trying to wrap our arms around what our revenues might be. The Bally’s component adds more uncertainty and that certainly makes it harder.”

The Rangers play in a larger market than the Guardians, and obviously are coming off a more successful season. The lack of state income tax in Texas makes them attractive to free agents. And even spending more than $800 million in the open market the past two offseasons, they still are in a relatively flexible position financially.

Consider how the Rangers’ future luxury-tax payrolls compare with those of three of the game’s biggest spenders, the Mets, Padres and Yankees (luxury-tax payrolls are based on the average annual values of contracts for players on the 40-man roster).

Source: Fangraphs

Thresholds for next three seasons: $237M, $241M, $244M (collective-bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1, 2026)

The Rangers almost certainly will field a highly competitive team next season. But as they wrestle with their changing local-television outlook, it’s possible they will not address their needs as quickly or as smoothly as they would like.

The Yankees’ payroll flexibility

Another thing in the above chart worth noting: The Yankees’ projected numbers are nearly as high as the Padres.’ Funny, considering many Yankees fans believe owner Hal Steinbrenner does not spend enough while many in the industry believe the Padres have spent too freely.

The Yankees’ projections over the next three seasons are largely the result of paying five players — Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu — in the range of $150 million annually. Steinbrenner has said a team should not need to spend $300 million to win a title. If he adheres to that belief, it might be unrealistic to expect the Yankees to sign say, both Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger to massive long-term deals.

Yamamoto, 25, won his third straight Pacific League MVP award on Tuesday, after earlier this offseason capturing his third straight Sawamura Award, the Japanese version of the Cy Young. The expectation is that he will receive a guarantee of at least $200 million, and speculation within the industry is that market forces could take the number considerably higher.

Waiting on Cease

New White Sox general manager Chris Getz is telling clubs he likely will wait to move on right-hander Dylan Cease until after the top free-agent starting pitchers sign, according to major-league sources briefed on the discussions.

Getz could act sooner if gets an offer to his liking, perhaps from a team such as the Orioles or Reds, who are expected to refrain from the top of the free-agent market. But the advantage of waiting is obvious: The urgency of certain teams only will increase if they miss out on Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Co. Some clubs face such an acute shortage, they might be in on Cease even if they sign a top free agent.

The Dodgers, for example, need multiple starters. The Cardinals, sources say, remain interested in Cease even after signing Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. It would be uncharacteristic of the Reds and Orioles to jump the market, and their appetite for Cease is unlikely to diminish if the White Sox wait.

Cease, entering his age-28 season, is under club control for two more years, one more than fellow trade candidates Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber. His combined salary in arbitration over the next two seasons likely will be in the $25 million range. Glasnow, entering his age-30 season, will earn $25 million alone in 2024.

Will Marlins trade a starter?

Almost every offseason, teams come at the Marlins for their starting pitching. This offseason is no different, and the Marlins could trade a starter to address needs at shortstop and/or catcher. The problem is that they already face a shortage of innings in their rotation.

Sandy Alcantara is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Eury Pérez will be on an innings limit after throwing 128 last season, 91 1/3 in the majors. If the Marlins trade a starter, they almost certainly would need to replace him with a veteran free agent on a one-year deal.

Left-handers Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett almost certainly are off-limits, but teams are interested in righty Edward Cabrera and lefty Trevor Rogers, according to sources briefed on the Marlins’ conversations.

Cabrera, 25, produced a 4.24 ERA in 99 2/3 major-league innings, missing a month with a right shoulder impingement last season and also spending more than a month at Triple A. Rogers, 26, did not pitch after April 19 due to a left biceps strain and then a partial tear in his right lat, likely compromising his value.

Rangers infielder Ezequiel Duran, who produced a .768 OPS in 439 plate appearances, is the kind of player the Marlins likely would want for Cabrera. The Rangers, though, might not be willing to part with Duran, whom they acquired from the Yankees at the 2021 deadline as part of the return for Joey Gallo. Duran, 24, was valuable as an injury replacement at shortstop and third base and also contributed in the outfield.

Mariners poised to strike … maybe

The Mariners are another club that potentially can trade a starting pitcher, but they were in the same position at the trade deadline and held tight. The rotation is the team’s strength, reducing the strain on the bullpen and offense, and giving the club a high competitive floor.

That said, the Mariners already have subtracted two important offensive contributors, declining to give free-agent outfielder Teoscar Hernández a qualifying offer and trading third baseman Eugenio Suárez to the Diamondbacks. Their goal is to find hitters who make better contact and draw more walks. And in a market thin on position players, the best way to do that probably is through a trade.

Only three Mariners position players — center fielder Julio Rodríguez, shortstop J.P. Crawford and catcher Cal Raleigh — appear entrenched for 2024. The team can upgrade in practically every other spot, then move pieces around. The subtractions of Hernández and Suárez created payroll flexibility for other moves.

Around the horn

• It will be interesting to see the adjustments Suárez, 32, attempts to make with the Diamondbacks. His career-high 214 strikeouts last season were the most in the AL, and he was not happy about it.

The way Suárez explained it, his approach with two strikes was the same as it was on the first pitch — all out, 100 percent. He acknowledged during the final weekend of the season that it was time for that to change.

• The Giants had interest in Sonny Gray, whose tenure with the A’s overlapped for two seasons with Farhan Zaidi and five with Bob Melvin. Gray, though, was intent on playing relatively close to his home in Nashville, which is about a 4 1/2-hour drive from St. Louis.

A reunion with the Reds — and Derek Johnson, Gray’s former pitching coach at Vanderbilt — also would have satisfied the pitcher’s geographic preference. But the Cardinals remain alluring for players, even after their first losing season since 2007. And their three-year, $75 million offer was higher than the Reds’, major-league sources said.

• And finally, hats off to reliever Emilio Pagán, who on Wednesday agreed with the Reds on a two-year, $16 million guarantee. He can end the deal after one year and hit the open market again by declining a player option.

Pagán, coming out of Belmont Abbey College, signed for $5,000 as the Mariners’ 10th-round pick in 2013. He was a two-way player then, a third baseman and closer. His $8 million salary in 2024 will be more than double his previous high.

(Top photo: Sam Hodde / Getty Images)