The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs
C.J. McCollum to Score 20+ Points (+130)
It’s extremely rare we get a prop showing this much value, but with a lean toward Spurs +8 (-110) myself, I have confidence we get a competitive enough game for C.J. McCollum to pay off this alternate points prop.
The opposing San Antonio Spurs allow the fourth-most points per game to point guards (24.1), and it’s no secret why. They combine the league’s fourth-highest pace factor with its seventh-worst defensive rating (117.3).
Even despite a lower usage rate overall (24.5%) than a lot of top point guards, McCollum has met or topped 19 points in four of his six December contests. He’s been right there.
In an elite matchup, McCollum is projected for 21.2 points by numberFire today. It’s why I lept to plus money rather than his juiced traditional prop mark (17.5).
Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks
Rockets +7.5 (-114)
Under 230.5 (-112)
These teams are simply not this different.
I can’t trust the Milwaukee Bucks to cover a massive number like this until their defense shores up. As of now, the Deer have the 10th-worst defensive rating in the NBA (115.4). Compare that to the Houston Rockets, who are second (107.4). Milwaukee is always a cold shooting night from a disappointing result.
Overall, their offenses have worked out to a net rating between these full-health clubs that isn’t far apart. Milwaukee (+4.4) just edges out Houston (+4.0). Still, home-court advantage doesn’t justify a seven-point spread when Houston actually enters this game with a day of extra rest.
Also, the seven points with the Rockets might be intrinsically more valuable if this game’s total sails under, and it might. numberFire’s model expects just 227.2 total points from these teams, which might be the public — backing Milwaukee — elevating the total in light of what Houston does. The Rockets’ 99.4 pace factor is fifth-worst in the NBA; they aren’t sporting totals in the 230-point range all that often.
This line wholly encompasses the way Milwaukee plays, but it’s not giving enough credit to a Houston club that’s been impressive in their own right.
Washington Wizards at Phoenix Suns
Jusuf Nurkic Over 26.5 Points and Rebounds (-113)
FanDuel was way out in front of this game’s 246-point total in prop markets. Despite a large number of points expected, not a lot was showing value in numberFire’s model — potentially because of a blowout.
Still, I believe in Jusuf Nurkic to be a sizable contributing force to a potential blowout and this game’s lofty total. The Washington Wizards are poor in all areas defensively, but centers are easily their biggest kryptonite. They allow the very most points (28.5) and rebounds (17.9) per game to opposing centers behind a dream combination for them. Washington is second in pace factor with the league’s worst defensive rating (121.6).
Nurkic has posted 16.4 points and 12.4 rebounds per 36 minutes with Bradley Beal off the floor for the Phoenix Suns, which will be the case for a significant period of time after Beal’s latest ankle injury.
A blowout would potentially drag this line into jeopardy, but Phoenix’s team total is an absurd 129.5 points today. That should mean they’ll encroach 100 in three quarters, and expect “The Bosnian Beast” to contribute a good chunk of them.
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers
Trail Blazers +5.5 (-108)
This line makes no sense, right? Well, the “sense” of it is that these teams are moving in entirely different directions.
The Portland Trail Blazers are now as healthy as they could be. Anfernee Simons, Deandre Ayton, and Malcolm Brogdon have all returned to the lineup recently, and that trio has shared the court for just 23 total minutes this season. We don’t really know what this team looks like with key pieces in the fold and the struggling Scoot Henderson now playing off the bench.
Even with Ayton out, the Blazers just played the Golden State Warriors to a four-point game in San Francisco just 11 days ago. Did that resonate with bettors? Definitely not when 75% of the spread bets and 80% of the spread money is on the Warriors at FanDuel Sportsbook in this spot.
The problem is Golden State, now without Draymond Green, isn’t who the public thinks they are. The Dubs have a -6.0 net rating with Green off the floor this season, which isn’t that much better than Portland’s -7.1 net rating battling injuries all year.
I’ll sprinkle the Trail Blazers ML (+176) in this spot. It could be yet another disappointing night for the collapsing Golden State dynasty.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
