Bundesliga 2023/24: Mid-Season – Data Analysis – Total Football Analysis Magazine
In the aftermath of the first 16 matchdays of the 2023/24 Bundesliga season, a comprehensive analysis unveils intriguing patterns and trends. As the league now enters its winter break, the performances of various teams beg scrutiny, separating those that have exceeded expectations from those that have fallen short.
This data analysis navigates through statistical landscapes, identifying overperforming and underperforming teams that have shaped the narrative of German football.
Beyond retrospection, this analysis extends into the future, attempting to predict the trajectory these trends might set as the season progresses. This analysis delves into the statistics, dissecting the highs, lows, and the enigmatic trajectories that have characterised the Bundesliga in the initial phase of the 2023/24 season.
Overperforming Teams
After the initial 16 matchdays of the 2023/24 season, the Bundesliga unfolds a narrative of overperforming teams that have defied statistical expectations.
Among these, Bayer Leverkusen emerges as a standout, accumulating 42 points against an expected 33.1 xPoints. Their offensive prowess is vividly demonstrated by the fact that they’ve scored an impressive 46 goals, exceeding the expected 35.79 xG. Victor Boniface contributed 17 goals (10 goals and seven assists) but will miss in the first matches in the new year due to his nomination for the Africa Cup. Wing-backs Alejandro Grimaldo (seven goals, six assists) and Jeremie Frimpong (five goals and seven assists) are considered key players under Xabi Alonso.
Despite a somewhat underwhelming xPoints of 23.5, Borussia Dortmund has managed to secure 27 points. A notable aspect is their goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, who has conceded 25 goals compared to the expected 30.37 xG against. This indicates a level of defensive resilience that has contributed to their overperformance.
However, Borussia Dortmund finds itself grappling with a set of challenges, particularly in their game structure, which falls short of the standards expected from a club of their stature. A conspicuous issue emerges when opponents navigate through their defensive lines. Dortmund tends to resort to the long ball strategy, averaging 40.94 per 90. This approach prioritises winning second balls over building up play through intricate combinations, highlighting a deliberate choice to keep distances large during the build-up phase.
Individual brilliance takes centre stage in the attacking third, underscoring a reliance on players’ one-on-one capabilities. Dortmund boasts the second-highest number of dribbles in the league at 27.72 per 90. However, a concerning aspect arises when examining their ability to unlock defences through passing. Surprisingly, 10 other Bundesliga teams play more passes behind the opposing defensive line than Dortmund, averaging only 6.05 per 90. This statistic raises questions about their effectiveness in creating high-quality scoring opportunities, indicating a struggle to convert individual skills into cohesive team play that consistently breaks down stubborn defences.
TSG Hoffenheim is another team that has surpassed expectations, accumulating 24 points against an expected xPoints of 20. While the margin of overperformance may not be as substantial as some counterparts, it indicates a team that has consistently outperformed statistical projections.
Eintracht Frankfurt has exhibited a fascinating dual dynamic. While their defensive performance has been better than expected (conceding 20 goals against an expected 26.81 xG against), their attacking prowess is where they shine. The team scored five goals more than anticipated, showcasing a potent offensive strategy.
With 20 points against an expected xPoints of 15.4, Heidenheim stands out as another overperformer. However, it’s essential to note a vulnerability in their defence, conceding 32 goals against an expected 39.39 xG against. This suggests that while they’ve outperformed in accumulating points, there might be challenges to address in fortifying their defensive line.
These overperforming teams collectively paint a picture of the Bundesliga’s unpredictability, where statistical projections often fall short of capturing the dynamism and resilience displayed by these footballing entities. As the season progresses, the intriguing question remains: can these overperformers sustain their momentum, or will statistical expectations begin to exert their influence? Only time and the unfolding matches will answer these footballing mysteries.
Underperforming Teams
The Bundesliga has witnessed surprising overperformances but also unexpected strugglers among certain teams during the initial 16 matchdays:
VfL Bochum, currently holding 15 points, has managed to accumulate points but faces a scoring efficiency challenge, registering seven goals less than expected. This suggests a potential need to enhance their conversion of opportunities into goals.
With 13 points, Union Berlin has faced defensive vulnerabilities, conceding over six goals more than expected. Strengthening their defensive resilience could be pivotal in maintaining their performance levels.
Darmstadt 98, securing 10 points, grapples with defensive issues, conceding 41 goals against an expected value of 28.33 xG. Improving defensive solidity would likely contribute to their stability.
1.FC Köln, with 10 points, has encountered challenges in the attacking department, scoring only 10 goals out of an expected 20.84 xG. Enhancing offensive efficiency becomes crucial for boosting their point accumulation.
One notable area of concern for Köln is their transition game, where they lose a significant number of balls, ranking fourth highest in the Bundesliga at 105.76 per 90. The team faces issues in the precision of their passes into the final third, with only a 61% success rate, marking the second-lowest in the league at 40.16 per 90.
Offensive creativity has been a major hurdle for Köln as they grapple with difficulties in penetrating the opponent’s penalty area. The team manages only 13.94 ball contacts within the penalty area per game, a value that ranks third weakest in the league. Additionally, despite being the highest crossers in the league with 18.03 per 90, their edge quality is lacking, with only 30.6% coming from there, marking the third weakest in the league.
To address these offensive challenges, Köln needs to focus on better occupying the penalty area, providing crucial support to their strikers during crosses. Improved finishing quality is essential, especially considering they currently hold the weakest shooting accuracy in the league. A shift towards a more patient build-up strategy, rather than direct forward play, could enhance their overall game.
Mainz 05, also with 10 points, has faced scoring difficulties, netting seven goals less than expected. Furthermore, their defence has conceded six goals more than anticipated, indicating a need for a more balanced approach.
These teams showcase determination in securing points, but specific areas such as finishing, defensive solidity, or overall balance need attention to elevate their performances in the Bundesliga further. Each club’s strategic adjustments in these areas could shape their trajectory in the remainder of the season.
Teams performing as expected
Several teams find themselves performing in line with expectations, both in terms of points earned and expected points based on underlying statistical metrics.
FC Bayern München have amassed 38 points, closely aligned with their expected points of 35.2, showcasing the efficiency and consistency characteristic of the Bavarian powerhouse.
VfB Stuttgart has demonstrated a commendable performance, securing 34 points, nearly in line with their expected points of 31.9. This consistency suggests a team delivering according to its underlying statistical performance.
RB Leipzig, another Bundesliga heavyweight, stands with 33 points, slightly above their expected points of 31.8. This suggests a team generally meeting expectations in the season’s first half.
Having secured 24 points, SC Freiburg closely matches their expected points of 23.7, indicating a team performing at a level commensurate with its statistical profile.
VfL Wolfsburg, FC Augsburg, Borussia Mönchengladbach, and Werder Bremen all find themselves within a relatively narrow range of deviation from their expected points. Wolfsburg with 19 points (expected points: 18.3), Augsburg with 17 points (expected points: 18.4), Mönchengladbach with 17 points (expected points: 18.7), and Werder Bremen with 16 points (expected points: 17.6) are demonstrating performances that align with their statistical projections.
By closely matching their expected points, these teams reflect a level of consistency in their performances, indicating that their results align with what one might anticipate based on their underlying metrics. As the season progresses, these clubs will aim to maintain this equilibrium and potentially exceed expectations in the pursuit of their Bundesliga aspirations.
Prediction for the rest of the season
As the Bundesliga enters the new year, predictions for the rest of the season involve a mix of perennial contenders, rising forces, and teams battling for survival.
Champion: FC Bayern
The perennial powerhouse, FC Bayern, is poised to continue its dominance and secure yet another Bundesliga title. With a combination of seasoned stars and emerging talents, Bayern remains the team to beat.
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers: Bayer Leverkusen, RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund
These three stalwarts are anticipated to secure coveted spots in the UEFA Champions League. Bayer Leverkusen, with its attacking prowess, RB Leipzig, with its strategic approach, and Borussia Dortmund, with its blend of youth and experience, are likely to compete at the highest European level.
UEFA Europa League: VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart, with its impressive run, is projected to clinch a spot in the UEFA Europa League. The team’s attacking flair and dynamic style of play make them a strong contender for European competition.
UEFA Europa Conference League: Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt is expected to secure a place in the UEFA Europa Conference League. The team’s solid performance and ability to navigate European competitions should see them in this tournament.
Relegation Play-offs: VfL Bochum
VfL Bochum faces the prospect of the relegation play-offs. The battle to remain in the Bundesliga will be intense, and Bochum will need to fight for their top-flight status.
Direct Relegation: 1. FC Köln, SV Darmstadt 98
1.FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 are predicted to face direct relegation. Both teams will have a challenging task ahead as they fight to avoid the drop to the lower division.
Based on the teams’ performances in the first half of the season, these predictions will undoubtedly be subject to the twists and turns that characterise football. As the Bundesliga unfolds in the coming months, the actual outcomes may well deviate from these forecasts, adding to the excitement and unpredictability of German top-flight football.
Conclusion
In dissecting the statistical landscape of the Bundesliga after the initial 16 matchdays of the 2023/24 season, a compelling narrative emerges, revealing the ebbs and flows, surprises, and expected outcomes.
In this intricacy of numbers and performance, the Bundesliga promises a riveting second half, where the unpredictable nature of football is bound to weave a tapestry of excitement, drama, and unexpected turns. As teams regroup and recalibrate for the challenges ahead, the data analysis provides a compass, but it is the unpredictable beauty of the beautiful game that will ultimately determine the outcomes.
