NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings and FanDuel (Saturday, Dec. 23) – Fantasy Labs
The NBA has 13 games scheduled throughout the day on Saturday before taking Sunday off to prepare for the Christmas Day showcase. Ten of those games are on the main DFS slate, which leaves off the two afternoon matchups and the one late game in Sacramento.
With 20 teams on the slate, there are plenty of great matchups to break down as you build your squad. Of those 20 teams, seven are playing for the second night in a row, as the Hawks, Nets, Mavericks, Nuggets, Warriors, Rockets and Raptors finish back-to-back sets. The whole Association takes Sunday off for Christmas Eve, so none of these teams has to worry about playing tomorrow.
Injury reports will be especially important to monitor with so many teams on back-to-backs and several key players uncertain. At this point in the season, it’s critical to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest updates and keep an eye on the news hub leading up to game time.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
As the Thunder host the Lakers, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander brings the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s an especially strong play on DraftKings, where he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate and a 95% Bargain Rating.
SGA has been on an impressive run this season and has led the Thunder to the second-best record in the Western Conference. He has averaged 1.59 DraftKings points and 1.62 FanDuel points per minute on the season and has scored at least 25 points in seven straight contests. In those seven games, he has exceeded his lofty salary-based expectations five times on DraftKings and six times on FanDuel while producing 1.66 DraftKings points and 1.75 FanDuel points per minute.
He should thrive in this matchup against the Lakers. At the end of November, the Thunder beat L.A. by 23 points, and Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 33 points, seven assists, and four rebounds in 35 minutes. He’s projected for 36.2 minutes and a 34.5% usage in this rematch and is one of the strongest plays on the board.
Value
The Cavaliers will remain without Donovan Mitchell (illness) in addition to Darius Garland (jaw) and Evan Mobley (knee) on Saturday when they visit the Bulls. Stepping into a much larger role, Craig Porter Jr. is an excellent value play. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire 20-team slate on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings behind SGA and one other player discussed below.
Porter has stepped into a larger role and moved into the starting lineup with Mitchell sidelined the last two games. He exceeded salary-based expectations in both contests and averaged 6.5 points, 8.5 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and even 1.5 blocks in 27.0 minutes per game. He dished out double-digit assists for the first time this season in his most recent game and logged 29 minutes.
In his expected role on Saturday, Porter brings both a high ceiling and a high floor. He typically contributes in multiple categories and should stay busy for as long as Spida is on the shelf.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic missed Friday’s loss for the Mavericks with a quad injury, but if he can return Saturday for a great matchup against the Spurs, he would bring an extremely high ceiling and challenge SGA for the top stud spot. There would definitely be risk since he may be at less than 100%, but the Spurs are a very favorable matchup and give the Mavericks the highest implied team total on the board according to our Vegas Dashboard, even with Luka’s status uncertain.
In a great matchup against the Hornets, Jamal Murray is another player our projections are high on. Murray had 32 points and nine assists against the Nets on Friday night and has 20+ points in three straight games. The Nuggets are playing the middle of their three games in four days and play again on Christmas Day, so keep an eye on their injury report. If he’s lined up for his usual workload or any extra work, Murray is a great option in what should be an up-tempo matchup in Charlotte.
While Porter stands out as the best value play under $6,000, Dennis Smith Jr. is also a good bargain option under $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Smith had missed seven straight games with back soreness but returned Friday against the Nuggets and stepped back into his role of around 20 minutes per game. He averaged 1.02 DraftKings points and 1.02 FanDuel points per minute in his 14 games this season and is projected for 20.1 minutes on Saturday. As long as he’s good to go on the second night of the back-to-back, he’ll be a solid bargain option.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Even though he only has the eighth-highest salary of shooting guards on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel, Anfernee Simons has a top-three median, ceiling, and floor projection at the position on both sites. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on DraftKings and the highest ceiling projection at the position on FanDuel.
Simons missed about six weeks with a thumb injury sustained on Opening Night but has been very busy since returning on Dec. 6. He has a team-high 31.7% usage rate in his eight games since then and has produced 1.25 DraftKings points and 1.18 FanDuel points per minute. He has averaged 28.25 points and 6.13 points during that stretch and outperformed salary-based expectations six times on DraftKings and seven times on FanDuel.
In this matchup with the Warriors, Simons also matches 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings and 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is tied for the most on the slate on both sites. The Warriors are finishing a back-to-back, and Simons and the Blazers have been playing teams tough lately. They lost by just four points to the Warriors last week when Simons had 24 points and seven assists. He should be poised for another good game in this rematch.
Value
There will probably be even more value plays that open up as the final injury reports come in, but coming into the day, OG Anunoby has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel and the fifth-highest on DraftKings. He should be in a great matchup as the Raptors come home and finish their back-to-back with a juicy matchup against the Jazz.
Anunoby has flashed a very high ceiling over his last eight games and is playing a team-high 36.0 minutes per game while producing 0.74 DraftKings points and 0.71 FanDuel points per minute. He typically has low usage, but he contributes in multiple categories and has flashed the ability to go off, with three games of 20+ points in that eight-game stretch.
His inconsistent scoring makes him a volatile option, but our projections like this matchup for him and like the mid-range value he offers.
Fast Break
With LaMelo Ball (ankle) still sidelined for the Hornets, Terry Rozier continues to carry the load. He matches 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings and 13 on FanDuel in this matchup with the Nuggets and is a pay-up alternative to Simons. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games on FanDuel and eight on DraftKings, with his only letdown a game he had to leave with an injury. He has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points and 1.30 FanDuel points per minute over that 10-game stretch.
If Luka is out again, Jaden Hardy would be a good value play again. He disappointed Friday when he was a very chalky play by only producing eight points against the Rockets. It wasn’t for lack of opportunity though, as he had a 27.2% usage rate in his 24 minutes but shot just 3-of-17 from the field. In a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Spurs, he would likely bounce back with a bigger game if the usage comes his way again.
Over the last three games, Sam Merrill has suddenly emerged as a strong value play for the Cavs, but the fourth-year guard is questionable Saturday with a wrist injury. Merrill had 19 points on Monday and 27 points on Wednesday but had to leave early in Thursday’s game after the injury. If he can overcome that, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings behind only Simons. He should be in a position to continue his recent surge if he’s able to play through the injury.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
With Zach LaVine (foot) sidelined, the Bulls have relied more on DeMar DeRozan, who has usually been up for the challenge and turned in great numbers over the last few weeks. DeRozan and the Bulls host the undermanned Cavs on Saturday night in what should be a good spot, as they look to grab their fourth straight win after beating the Sixers, Lakers, and Spurs over the last week.
DeRozan has the third-highest median projection and second-highest ceiling projection at small forward on FanDuel, where he also ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus. On DraftKings, DeRozan brings extra eligibility at power forward and has the third-highest median projection and second-highest ceiling projection at small forward.
In his 10 games in December, DeRozan has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points and 1.14 FanDuel points per minute while averaging 38.4 minutes per game and a team-high 26.1% usage rate. He has eight games of at least 20 points during that run and three double-doubles. If the Cavs can keep this game competitive, DeRozan should be one of the best small forwards on the board.
Value
Luguentz Dort has been a strong value play for the Thunder lately, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards under $5,000 on DraftKings, where he has a 92% Bargain Rating. He’s a little pricier on FanDuel, where Saddiq Bey has the best Projected Plus/Minus of the options under $6,000.
Dort has scored double-digit points in five straight games and seven of his last eight. He was very sharp on Thursday with 21 points in 31 minutes. It was his first 20+ point game since early November, and his usage is starting to creep up over the last few games. He has multiple three-pointers in four straight games and always contributes solid non-scoring numbers as well.
With Josh Giddey (ankle) out for the first time this season, there should be extra shots available, and Dort could be one of the top players to step up in his absence.
Fast Break
Scottie Barnes has the top ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel at small forward in a smash spot against the short-handed Jazz. That’s without LeBron James in the projections since LeBron is questionable and missed the Lakers’ most recent matchup. Barnes has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 11 games on FanDuel and seven of those contests on DraftKings. During those 11 games, he has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points and 1.36 FanDuel points per minute.
With Giddey off the floor this season, Jalen Williams has seen an increase of over 4.5 percentage points to his usage rate and has produced 1.04 DraftKings points and 1.08 FanDuel points per minute. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel.
The Grizzlies are continuing to start Vince Williams Jr. with Ja Morant. Williams is a small forward on DraftKings and a shooting guard on FanDuel, but he projects to be a good value at either spot in a low-usage, high-minute role for Memphis as they visit the Hawks.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
There’s a lot of upside to love in Paolo Banchero’s game as a whole and specifically in his matchup on Saturday against the Pacers. He has the third-highest ceiling projection at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel and the second-highest at the position on DraftKings.
Banchero has shown an extremely high ceiling, with 42 points against the Cavs and 36 points against the Celtics, highlighting an impressive start to December. In his nine games this month, he has produced 1.24 DraftKings points and 1.18 FanDuel points per minute and has out-produced salary-based expectations on FanDuel in six of those nine games.
The Magic have the biggest pace differential on the slate this Saturday as they take on the up-tempo, aptly-named Pacers, who lead the NBA in pace. Banchero had 24 points in 27 minutes against them earlier this season and has the potential for an even bigger game in this rematch in Indianapolis.
Value
The Nets have dropped five straight, but that’s nothing in comparison to the 25 straight losses of their opponent on Saturday, the Pistons. One of Detroit’s biggest problems is their lack of defense, so they are a great matchup to attack whenever they’re on the slate. Cameron Johnson is one value way to do that at power forward on Saturday. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards $6,000 and under on FanDuel and the third-highest in that price bracket on DraftKings.
Johnson scored 20 and 17 points in his last two games and has double-digit points in six of his last seven. He has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points and 0.84 FanDuel points per minute over that seven-game span while averaging 32.3 minutes per game with 18.5% usage. If he’s around those totals against Detroit, he should be a very solid value play at his price.
Fast Break
Depending on who exactly is available for the Mavs, Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs could be in a great spot on Saturday. Wemby had a down game by his standards on Thursday after missing a game with an ankle injury, but he’ll look to get back on track in Dallas. He has a 92% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and has averaged 1.48 DraftKings points and 1.50 FanDuel points per minute in his wildly impressive rookie season.
The only player with a higher ceiling projection at power forward than Wemby is Anthony Davis, who is questionable against the Thunder. If he plays and LeBron misses another game, he’ll have an extremely high ceiling, but there’s also a chance he will be limited or out as the Lakers look forward to their Christmas Day matchup with the Celtics.
The bargain plays at power forward are limited, but Kenrich Williams and Aaron Wiggins should be solid punt plays with more minutes available with Giddey out for OKC. Another strong value play in our projections is Trayce Jackson-Davis, who is starting to get more work for the Warriors while Draymond Green (suspension) is unavailable. Jackson-Davis has posted back-to-back double-doubles and exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games while averaging 11.3 points and 12.0 rebounds per game.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
As long as there are no surprises on the Nuggets injury report, Nikola Jokic should be in a great spot against the Hornets on Saturday. The Joker had 31 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists in 34 minutes for another strong showing on Friday in Brooklyn. He has played well in back-to-backs this season, so there’s no need to overthink it if you have the salary available.
Jokic has produced 1.85 DraftKings points and 1.76 FanDuel points per minute on the season and has played more minutes than anyone else for Denver, with 33.6 minutes per game and a team-high 31.4% usage rate.
He’s projected for 29.8% usage in 34.9 minutes on Saturday, which should allow him to post a huge line against the Hornets, who will likely be without starting center Mark Williams (back, doubtful) for a seventh straight game. Nick Richards has filled in, but Jokic should be able to take advantage of Richards and the other Hornets’ options at center to dominate the game and post a big stat line on Saturday.
Value
The second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings comes from Thunder center Chet Holmgren, who has a 92% Bargain Rating on that site. The rookie also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on FanDuel, where he’s a little pricier but still worth a look.
Holmgren has quickly grown into a strong secondary scoring option for the Thunder and consistently contributes in other categories as well. He has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points and 1.32 FanDuel points per minute on the season and has been even better over his last five games, averaging 1.45 DraftKings points and 1.51 FanDuel points per minute over his last eight games.
Fast Break
Both Davis and Wemby (discussed above) are strong plays at center along with Pascal Siakam, who had an impressive 31-point game on Friday against the Sixers. He hasn’t been the most consistent play this month but does have a very high ceiling and should be in a smash spot against the Jazz.
The Rockets are playing for the second night in a row, and as long as Aleperen Sengun is available, he also deserves a look. The second-year center dominated with 22 points and 15 boards in just 25 minutes against the Mavs on Friday. He has shown a great ceiling as well coming into this matchup with the Pelicans in New Orleans.
If you have to go ultra-cheap at center, Marvin Bagley III and Bismack Biyombo stand out with the best Projected Plus/Minus rankings under $6,000 on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Kenrich Williams is center eligible and is joined by Day’Ron Sharpe as the best value plays under $5,000 in terms of Projected Plus/Minus.
