Nuggets vs. Warriors prediction, odds, spread, time: 2023 NBA Christmas Day picks, best bets from proven model – CBS Sports
Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets host a prominent NBA matchup on Christmas Day. The Nuggets welcome the Golden State Warriors to Ball Arena for a battle between the two most recent league champions. The Nuggets are 11-2 at home this season, including a head-to-head win over the Warriors. Golden State is 6-8 on the road and operating without Gary Payton II as a result of a calf injury.
Tipoff is at 2:30 p.m. ET in Denver. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists Denver as the 6.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 233.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Nuggets odds. Before making any Nuggets vs. Warriors picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 101-52 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning well over $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Nuggets vs. Warriors:
- Warriors vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -6.5
- Warriors vs. Nuggets over/under: 233.5 points
- Warriors vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -253, Warriors +207
- Golden State: The Warriors are 8-6 against the spread in road games
- Denver: The Nuggets are 7-5-1 against the spread in home games
- Warriors vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Warriors can cover
The Warriors are led by one of the game’s most dynamic forces in Stephen Curry. The nine-time All-NBA selection and two-time NBA MVP is averaging 29 points and almost five 3-pointers per game over the four seasons combined. Curry is also shooting 44% from 3-point range against the Nuggets in his storied career, and he is capable of exploding on any given afternoon or evening. Curry is the centerpiece of an offense that is in the top five of the NBA in 3-pointers, making 15 per game this season.
The Warriors are also in the top six of the league with nearly 28 assists per contest, and Golden State is elite on the offensive glass. The Warriors are grabbing more than 32% of available rebounds after missed shots, and Golden State is also averaging almost 24 free throw attempts per contest. On the other side, Denver forces fewer than 13 turnovers per game, and that conservative trait could help the Warriors stay aggressive. See which team to pick here.
Why the Nuggets can cover
Ball Arena is a friendly venue for the Nuggets. Denver is 11-2 in its home building this season, out-scoring opponents by 11.6 points per 100 possessions. The Nuggets have dominated offensively in Denver, scoring 1.24 points per possession while averaging 30.7 assists per game and shooting 50.9% from the field and 39.5% from 3-point range. Denver was also 10-1 at home during its 2023 playoff run that yielded an NBA championship, and the Nuggets were 34-7 with a +9.6 net rating at home during the 2022-23 regular season.
In contrast, Golden State is just 17-38 on the road over the last two regular seasons, with opponents out-scoring the Warriors by 152 points in that span. In addition, the Nuggets are virtually unstoppable on offense, scoring more than 1.18 points per possession this season. Denver ranks in the top five of the NBA in field goal percentage, assists per game, turnovers per game and points in the paint. See which team to pick here.
How to make Nuggets vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 234 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s NBA picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 101-52 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
