Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 1-1-2024 – Stat Salt
The Utah Jazz will play host to the Dallas Mavericks on Monday as the 2024 portion of the NBA season kicks off. Utah is coming off win over the Heat while Dallas topped Golden State. Tipoff is slated for 9:00 PM Eastern.
Let’s dive in.
Doncic Drops 39 In Win Over Warriors
The return of Luka Doncic was felt immediately as he went on to score 39, 25 in the second half, as the Mavs got the win over Golden State. Dallas shot over 55% from the floor and connected on 40% from long range, while holding the Warriors to sub 40% from deep. Three starters finished in double figures and Josh Green came off the bench to add 18. Dereck Lively II had a quiet double-double with 12 points and 14 boards.
Dallas comes into this contest averaging 119.2 points per game, which is good for 7th in the league. The Mavs sit bottom five in assist rate, but the addition of Doncic back into the rotation will surely prop that ratio up as he had a quiet 10 assists last game and is averaging nine per contest. Dallas hasn’t chosen to attack the rim at a high rate, and currently sit bottom five in the NBA with around 46 paint points per game. In fact, Dallas has elected to take outside shots at one of the highest rates in the league. Dallas fires off more than 40 3-pointers per game and is knocking down nearly 16 of them. The lack of inside pressure offensively has also led to fewer offensive boards. Simply put, this means that when the outside shots aren’t falling for the Mavs, they may fall into cold spells. Fortunately, they have continued to get the most out of their possessions as they turn it over at the lowest rate in the NBA.
On the defensive end of the court, Dallas is allowing 117.8 points per game, which lands them at 22nd in the NBA. Similarly to the offense, Dallas has struggled locking down the painted area. On the season, they are allowing over 53 points down low per game, which is bottom five. The inability to disrupt the high percentage, close range shot has dropped the Dallas defense to 22nd in opponent effective field goal percentage. On top of that, the Mavs have been below average in opponent 3-point shooting. Fortunately, when they travel to Utah they will be facing one of the lowly 3-point offenses in the league. If Dallas is unable to keep the Jazz off the offensive glass here, a problem that has abated all season, the Mavs could have trouble slowing the offense.
Jazz Win 4 Of 5
After starting the month of December unable to gain a solid footing, the Jazz have now four of five, scoring 119 or more in three of those contests. That offensive groove continued here as Utah shot 46% from the floor and had seven players in double figures. Collin Sexton led the team in scoring with 22, and veteran Kelly Olynyk came off the bench to sport a 10 assist 19 point double-double.
Utah comes into this contest averaging 113.4 points per game, which is 19th in the league. As touched on, during this recent end of year rally from the Jazz, the have topped this number in all four of their wins, and were right at season average in their loss. The method to the success has been an increased attack in the paint. Most recently, they amassed 60 points in the key. This was against a strong Miami interior defense. On the season, Utah is 11th in paint scoring, but we should expect a continued emphasis near the rim for the shooters from the Ute. Another key contributor to the uptick in offensive efficiency has been the Jazz’ ability to distribute the ball. Utah sits 6th in the league in assist rate, and if not for the highest turnover rate in basketball, would be a very lethal offense. Utah has remained one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the league and that should continue here. Not only has Dallas been unable to close out possessions, but with Utah attacking the paint more frequently, they should have more bodies around the rim to grab missed shots.
On the defensive end of the court, Utah is allowing 118.8 points per game, landing them at 23rd in the league. Utah has struggled to slow teams in the paint, despite sitting top 10 in blocks per game. Part of this is due to the Jazz’ inability to force steals. But a large part of the defensive woes come from a lack of sustained continuity. Aside from opponent free throw percentage, the Jazz are bottom 10 in every opponent shooting metric and have allowed foes to assist on made baskets at a near 65% clip. We shouldn’t expect Utah to force too many turnovers here as they have already struggled to pick pockets, but will be facing a Mavs offense that protects the ball at the highest rate in the NBA. If turnovers are not to be had, Utah needs to close out possessions. At current, Utah sits bottom 10 in opponent offensive rebound rate, but will be facing a Mavs team that likes to fire off the long ball and has been soft on the offensive glass. The key for Utah here will be limiting Dallas to single shot trips ip the court.
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Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:
Not only will Dallas have Doncic returning to action, but the Mavs will be facing a Utah team that turns the ball over at the highest rate in basketball. Couple that with Dallas’ lowest turnover rate in the NBA and you have a recipe for the Mavs to control possessions and fire off more shot attempts. Dallas has the ability to fall in love with the outside shot, but with Utah struggling to keep opponents from assisting on made baskets, we should expect the Mavs to be able to move the ball around and locate the open man. Lastly, Dallas sits top 10 in transition offense and should have plenty of breakaway opportunities here.
Dallas -8.5
Prediction: Dallas -8.5
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Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:
Dallas doesn’t play at a top 10 pace, but the offense’ ability to protect the basketball has launched them into the top five in regard to field goal attempts per game. Along with this, they sit 2nd in 3-point attempts and makes per game. Utah has seemed to find their gusto on the offensive end of late. The Jazz should be able get what they want down low and pull down a fair amount of offensive rebounds to create second chance points. With Utah’s shaky ball security we should also see the Mavs open the court up and generate a fair amount of fast break points here. Take the over as these budding offenses look to out-gun one another.
Over 235.5
Prediction: Over 235.5
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