Michael Smolens: Local elections in 2024 will reverberate from San Diego to Washington, D.C. – The San Diego Union-Tribune

San Diego elections in 2024 could affect the balance of political power at the County Administration Center, City Hall and in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Meanwhile, potential ballot measures may determine voter appetite for raising local taxes to expand transportation options, build more housing and fund San Diego city government operations. Statewide, voters will consider competing propositions to make it easier or harder to raise taxes.

Another statewide ballot measure will revisit the issue of same-sex marriage, which Californians voted to ban in 2008 with Proposition 8 but was later overturned in court. The November 2024 ballot measure calls for deleting the language of the ban from the California Constitution.

That constitutional provision had been considered irrelevant because of the court rulings. Advocates for next year’s amendment say the language could essentially be reactivated by a contrary ruling from the more conservative U.S. Supreme Court.

Further, Democrats are hoping the same-sex marriage measure will be another factor encouraging their voters to cast ballots in an election already expected to have a high turnout.

Turnout tends to be higher in presidential election years, and Democrats likely will be even more energized if former President Donald Trump is the Republican nominee as expected. The turnout and the Trump dynamic may impact races across the board.

There are numerous elections of consequence next year. Here are some of the key ones.

49th Congressional District

The coastal district straddling the San Diego and Orange County line again may play a role in whether Republicans retain their majority in the House or Democrats win it back.

The 49th is among a handful of California battleground districts that have been pivotal in determining that balance of power in the House since 2018, when incumbent Democrat Mike Levin was first elected. To varying degrees, Trump has been a factor in each of Levin’s past three election campaigns.

A handful of Republicans are vying to take on Levin, including San Diego businesswoman Margarita Wilkinson and Matt Gunderson, a business owner who in 2022 narrowly lost a state Senate race to former Encinitas Mayor Catherine Blakespear in a district that overlaps with the 49th.

Both Gunderson and Wilkinson have built substantial campaign war chests early on, as has Levin.

As part of their efforts to advance out of the March 5 primary, the two Republicans have been touting their endorsements from local and national GOP figures. Gunderson has been showcasing his endorsement from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Wilkinson has emphasized regional GOP figures including former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and San Marcos Mayor Rebecca Jones.

Two other Republicans are on the March 5 primary ballot: veterans advocate/businesswoman Kate Monroe and automotive technology executive Sheryl Adams, who has been endorsed by Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Bonsall.

The Democratic and Republican national parties are expected to be involved in this race.

Three highly watched election trackers — The Cook Report, Larry Sabado’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections — currently rate this district “likely Democratic,” according to Ballotpedia

San Diego County Board of Supervisors

In one of the biggest San Diego political surprises this year, Faulconer decided to run against Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer, a Democrat with strong labor backing.

The former mayor, who in the past has had business and Republican establishment backing, has a high profile as well as some baggage from his two terms as mayor, a stint on the City Council and a run for governor during the unsuccessful recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom in September 2021.

This election will determine whether Democrats hold on to their 3-2 majority on the Board of Supervisors. County supervisor officially is a nonpartisan position, but party politics play a key role in board elections, as they do with many other local offices.

A Republican majority would likely mean a more business-friendly — and less labor-friendly — board, a possible a shift in spending away from some social services, and consideration of housing construction in undeveloped areas.

San Diego City Council special election

The District 4 election to replace Monica Montgomery Steppe, who was elected to the Board of Supervisors in November, may be the most interesting San Diego city election of 2024.

The March 5 race has come down to a contest between Henry Foster, Montgomery Steppe’s former chief of staff, and Chida Warren-Darby, an aide to Mayor Todd Gloria. Foster has gained momentum with a handful of endorsements from council members and powerful labor organizations.

The election could determine the balance of power on the all-Democratic council and possibly whether Sean Elo-Rivera remains council president. Elo-Rivera earlier this month was re-elected to the post, but the 5-4 vote laid bare divisions on the council, as did the criticism of Elo-Rivera by some members who voted against him.

Montgomery Steppe voted for Elo-Rivera as one of her last acts on the City Council. Warren-Darby would be expected to join the four who opposed him, while Foster would be one of his allies.

The division is there, but coalitions often change depending on the issue, and it’s not clear how the election of either Foster or Warren-Darby would affect policy. A week after the contentious vote over council president, a compromise on Gloria’s updated housing plan was approved by a 7-1 council vote.

Wild card mayoral election

Gloria is up for re-election but so far it’s hard to figure out what kind of challenge he faces. He’s running against Larry Turner, a San Diego Police Department community relations officer, and Geneviéve Jones-Wright, a social justice advocate and former district attorney candidate.

Also on the ballot are Thomas Nguyen, Jane Glasson, Athena Johnson and Daniel Smiechowski.

Jones-Wright has a notable following and her late entry into the race created a buzz, but it’s not yet clear whether she can change the trajectory of a likely Gloria re-election.

Right now, it seems the mayor’s biggest political problems aren’t opposing candidates, but the issues of homelessness, the high cost of housing and a sense among many voters that San Diego, like the state and nation, may not be on the right track.

What they said

Historian Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC)

“American Presidents usually understand that being criticized and ridiculed is part of our process. In 1968, LBJ wrote the anti-Vietnam War Smothers Brothers, ‘It is part of the price of leadership of this great and free nation to be the target of clever satirists.’”*

*Earlier, President Lyndon Johnson called CBS Chairman William Paley to complain about a skit mocking him on “The Smothers Brothers Comedy Hour.”