Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 2-8-2024 – Stat Salt
We’re roughly 65% through the NBA regular season, and things are starting to heat up in the playoff race. We have a high-leverage Western Conference tilt on Thursday night as the Utah Jazz square off against the Phoenix Suns. Utah enters this contest at 26-26 (10th in West) while Phoenix is currently 30-21 (6th in West). Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 ET from the Footprint Center in Phoenix, AZ.
Jazz Hanging Around in the West
Despite not having huge expectations entering the season, Will Hardy has his Jazz contending for a playoff spot. However, while they’re 10th in the Western Conference, the oddsmakers have Utah listed as a +750 underdog to make the postseason (final eight teams). They’re -1400 to miss. After dropping three straight games, Utah has bounced back with a pair of wins, taking down Milwaukee (123-108) and Oklahoma City (124-117), more recently. From a sports betting perspective, the Jazz enter this contest at 31-21 ATS and they’ve seen 29 of their 52 games go over the total.
Utah won outright as a 3.5-point home underdog last time out against OKC. The Jazz had the edge in field goal percentage (51.7% to 47.8%) and rebounding (48 to 32), while the Thunder were better from three-point range (51.4% to 40.0%) and in the turnover department (11 to 17).
Individually, Lauri Markkanen has been the most productive player this season, leading the team in both scoring (23.8 PPG) and rebounding (8.6 RPG). Jordan Clarkson runs things in the backcourt, adding 17.4 points per game while dishing out a team-leading 4.9 assists per night.
Suns Playing Well, 4-1 in Last Five
Phoenix got out to a relatively slow start, and most of that was due to various injuries with their star players. The Suns are quite healthy at the moment, and it has started to show in the standings as they’re 11-3 in their last 14 games. That includes a current 4-1 stretch, where they’ve taken down the Heat (118-105), Nets (136-120), Wizards (140-112), and Bucks (114-106), most recently. The lone loss over the five-game stretch came on the road against the Hawks (129-120). As for their sports betting numbers, the Suns enter this game at 20-29-2 ATS and they’ve seen 26 of their 51 games go under the total.
Phoenix won its second straight game last time out, while also covering as a 5.5-point home favorite against Milwaukee. The Suns were better in both field goal percentage (50.6% to 43.3%) and rebounding (49 to 44), while the Bucks had the edge in three-point shooting (32.5% to 28.6%) and turnovers (13 to 14).
As for individual efforts, Kevin Durant is putting together another excellent season, leading the team in both scoring (28.3 PPG) and blocks (1.3 BPG). Devin Booker leads things up top, adding 27.9 points per game while dishing out a team-leading 7.1 assists per night.
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Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:
The Suns have spent a lot of time on the road to start the new calendar year considering 10 of their last 14 games have been on the road. They’re 11-3 SU over the 14-game sample size, which includes a perfect 4-0 record at home. Over the four home games, Phoenix has posted an average margin of victory of +4.8.
While a +4.8 MOV isn’t much to write home about, this matchup with the Jazz presents the Suns with an excellent opportunity to add a blowout win. Utah brings in one of the worst defenses in the Association, ranking 24th, conceding 115.9 points per 100 possessions. Phoenix’s offense is clicking right now, averaging 125.6 points per game in their last five. I think this big three of Kevin Durant (28.3 PPG), Devin Booker (27.9 PPG), and Bradley Beal (18.4 PPG) will steamroll Utah on Thursday. The Jazz have struggled to cover on the road, going just 13-15 ATS in road contests.
Prediction: Phoenix Suns To Cover
Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:
Building on that, I’ll also be on the over on Thursday night. In Utah’s last 10 games, they’re 4-6 SU, and they’ve allowed an average of 126.1 points per contest. They haven’t held an opponent under 100 points since January 1st (19 games), and only five of those teams were held under 110 points. On the flip side, the Suns aren’t exactly the pinnacle of defense either. They’re just 16th in defensive efficiency, surrendering 114.1 points per 100 possessions.
With both teams healthy, I think we see these offenses on full display. Especially Phoenix, where they have a great opportunity for them to run up the score on a lousy defense. From a trends perspective, the over is 8-4 in the last 12 meetings between the two sides, and it’s 5-1 in the last six meetings in the Valley. Let’s sit back and watch these offenses go to work – give me the over!
Prediction: Over
