Russia Splatters The Environment, Leaving Its Own Country A Mess – Forbes

When Russia’s President Putin kills the Ukrainians and his political opponents, it is splattered all over the news — as it should be. But its government is also jeopardizing its future economy by ignoring the climate threat that is leaving an indelible scar there.

Putin and his puppets fixate on the hydrocarbon economy — the money-making machine that is fueling its war against Ukraine and paying for its social obligations. But it is not thinking long-term: even the country’s current patrons for petroleum and natural gas are inching their way into the green energy economy. And while Russia’s scientists are fully aware of warming’s perils, they have no say, especially now when Putin’s primary focus is holding on to power for dear life.

“Russia can’t afford to take a forward-looking perspective right now,” says Susanne Wangle, professor of political science at Notre Dame, in a conversation. “It is holding on to power tooth and nail. No one knows why the Russian government does anything, but its economy centers on the war effort. It is not considering climate change and carbon reductions in 2030 or 2050.”

Wangle is the co-author of just released study called “Russia in a Changing Climate — with 16 co-authors, all of whom specialize in post-Soviet Eurasia. The theme of the analysis is that Russia has no plans to transition to cleaner energy. This move would help it integrate into the 21st-century economy, allowing it to live peacefully with its neighbors.

Russia, instead, uses its oil and gas prowess as a political weapon. For example, between 1990 and 2014, it sold natural gas to Ukraine at a discount to keep it in the Russian fold. But as soon as Ukraine elected to identify with the West, Russia cut off those supplies, causing Russia to invade its neighbor and Europe to boycott its fossil fuels.

For a while, those sanctions worked. However, Russia has rebounded because China, India, and Turkey have picked up the slack, although they are getting oil on the cheap. As a result, they will keep buying it. Moreover, the energy transition takes time and money. With that, it is in those countries’ interest to go green — moves that make them more appealing to foreign investors and multinational corporations. Their citizens also require healthy climates — not lousy air.

“Russia wants to continue selling hydrocarbons and build these political relationships,” says Wangle. “The availability of cheap Russian oil and gas is hard to resist.”

Winning Favor From Developing Nations

Russia can leverage its assets in the marketplace. And while it can’t outmuscle the West, it can win favor from developing nations. However, the cause for concern is that Russia is the world’s largest country, warming four times faster than Earth, and is a primary emitter of greenhouse gases, the study asserts.

As a result, the country gets hit with heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires. And while it is known as an oil and gas exporter, it is also one of the world’s most notable wheat and grain producers. Climate change, therefore, impacts not just Russia’s economy but also that of the world. It’s about food security, too.

However, Russians benefit from oil and gas revenues because they can use those monies to fund social welfare programs. But fossil fuel income will one day dry up, explained Debra Javeline, the study’s lead author and a professor of political science at Notre Dame. Decarbonization and economic diversification would benefit the Russian population — but Putin sees almost no advantage.

Russian scientists are sounding the alarm bells, she adds. Unfortunately, they have little power to change the behavior of the Russian state. Meanwhile, the Russian public is relatively unmoved, with opinion polls suggesting they agree with their leaders that international climate policy threatens Russian sovereignty and power.

“There is little evidence that Russia will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, the country mostly does not make meaningful commitments in the first place,” says Javeline. “It rigs the pledges by creating targets that effectively require no cuts to current emissions, or it takes too much credit for the carbon sequestration of its forests, or it avoids providing details on the implementation of mitigation plans.”

Moreover, none of its pledges account for war-related emissions or Ukraine’s environmental destruction. Javeline says that estimates show Russia’s military emissions to be in the hundreds of millions of extra tons of CO2-equivalents. Death and destruction abound — but so too does the ecological damage; chemicals and hazardous waste seep into the air and water supplies.

According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources, Russia’s invasion has resulted in more than 3,700 crimes against nature and the environment. As a result, fires and military operations have led to 150 million tons of CO2 emissions. The cost is $61.5 billion.

Yale University tracks the companies curtailing their Russian business practices — and those that remain in the country. Among the energy companies that have withdrawn or scaled back are Schlumberger
SLB
, Total, and Shell. And those companies digging in include Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Veolia.

“Russia no longer cares what the West thinks,” says Professor Wangle. “It wanted to sit at the table and be in those meetings. But the advanced countries kicked it out of its club. Now, it is all about confrontation with the West. The war is what matters most to it.”

The global community, generally, wants to comply with the Paris Agreement, requiring countries to wean themselves from fossil fuels. Therefore, forward-thinking countries are investing in sustainable energies — a move that attracts the most cutting-edge companies. Sadly, Russia’s aged leaders have not evolved, taking a political and economic toll on its people.