DeFranks’ chat: What does the trade deadline have in store for the Blues? – St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Matthew DeFranks: Good afternoon. The Blues are 32-27-3, on pace for 89 points. They enter the day six points back of Nashville for a playoff position with one game in hand on the Predators. The trade deadline is in two days. Let’s get to some questions.

Jacob: What should Blues fans expect over the next couple of days? Is Army ready to pull the trigger on Buchnevich? Will Scandella fetch anything? Is there any league interest in guys like Vrana, Kapanen, Blais, etc.?

Matthew DeFranks: Personally, I am not expecting a ton. I do think the Blues move Marco Scandella and even Oskar Sundqvist. But if they do anything besides that, it’s a big move with guys like Buchnevich, or a big-money defenseman in play.

To me, Scandella is basically worth a sixth round pick. In the past, that’s what depth defensemen like Robert Hagg or Jordie Benn went for. And that would probably require the Blues to retain salary on him. Also, he’s got to be worth more than Robert Bortuzzo, who went for a seventh-rounder earlier this season.

Sundqvist was traded for a fourth last year, and that was when he was $2M more expensive than he is this year. Maybe they can get a something higher than that? But I’m expecting something like a fourth-rounder for him.

Outside of that, the prices have to be right for hockey moves. I don’t think guys like Kapanen, Vrana, Blais have any value due to their performance and salaries.

DDMN: The next few months will be critical to whether the Blues can find themselves in the top echelon of teams in the coming years. They won’t be able to get away with small tweaks as the roster is constructed, and Army had hamstrung himself with all the NTC’s and longer term deals for middling production. What bold moves do you foresee him making to unclog this team?

Matthew DeFranks: I think he’s been trying to unload a defenseman dating back to last summer, but it’s just hard to move. And, as you mentioned, it’s Doug Armstrong’s own mess that he created for himself.

I think he keeps trying to move guys like Krug, Leddy or Faulk. For now, I think you’ve got to hold Parayko, or at least not dangle him out there like you would the other players. Those are tough deals, and they all have control over the situations, too.

So having said all that, I do wonder if Armstrong entertains a buyout in the summer for a guy like Leddy with two years left at $4M. It still might be too early for Krug and Faulk, since they have the extra year and are at $6.5M annually.

Some of the solution could be to inject an ELC or two onto the roster for cheap labor, combined with the cap going up, and maybe the Blues don’t have to do as much surgery.

Trading Jordan Kyrou would be a bold move, and I think there would be teams interested out there. At his very core, he’s a guy that can provide instant offense with his skating and shot. There are warts, sure, but he does what so many players in this league cannot.

Call me…. Tomato.: I propose a lifetime subscription to the Post in return for Roy Hobbs to come back. Does Armstrong make the move?!

Matthew DeFranks: I wish he were around for The Jakub Vrana Wars of December.

Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Matt, if Army moves Schenn at the trade deadline who do you see at the next captain? I vote for Jake Neighbors for the C or at least an A. Yes he is young but he has lead the team by showing his willingness to go to the front of the net and pick up the loose change. Besides Neighbors I vote for Robert Thomas who is the logical choice. What say you?

Matthew DeFranks: If Armstrong suddenly decides to trade his captain for the second straight season (which I don’t find likely for a number of reason), the Blues probably ride out the rest of the season without a C. And then get to the offseason.

Based on the letters this season, Robert Thomas feels like the next in line. He’s the only alternate captain that wears an A for every game while Parayko and Faulk rotate.

In a few years, I think Jake Neighbours could make a lot of sense. But right now, we need to remember that he’s still in his first full season in the NHL. He’s 21 years old. He still hasn’t experienced many of the ups and downs the NHL brings and that a captain is tasked with navigating.

Neighbours, in the way that he plays and the way that he speaks and how he gets on with his teammates, he feels like a future captain. But the future is down the line.

ICCFIM: Has Colton Parayko become the true #1 defenseman we needed? At age 31 this May how does he fit into the future?

Matthew DeFranks: I don’t think so. I think he’s become a very solid 2 or 3A. But a No. 1 defenseman needs to be able to do everything for you. Unfortunately for Parayko, that includes driving offense and producing on the power play. He’s got the defensive side and the transition side of the game figured out, but the offense has lagged in terms of his on-ice effects.

He is such a tough player to replace for a number of reasons, too. There’s not many 6-6 right-handed defensemen who can skate well, and transitions the puck as well as anyone.

Successful teams need a guy like Parayko, but they just don’t need them as the best player on the back end.

Mike: Matt, any thoughts on why Tarasenko had such a lower trade value now compared to only a year ago? And does the Tarasenko trade have any influence on what the Blues could get for Buchnevich? Thanks!

Matthew DeFranks: There was no Niko Mikkola involved, obviously.

I don’t know this at all, but it feels like Tarasenko’s NTC came more into play this season than it did a year ago. Tarasenko looked at Florida in the offseason, he has a home in Miami. It felt like a logical landing spot for him to waive his NTC. And if that was one of the only places he wanted to go, then that lessened the Senators’ leverage.

Still crazy that Doug Armstrong got a first round pick for a less productive Tarasenko than Ottawa for this season.

As far as Buchnevich, I don’t think this impacts his market. Tarasenko is older with more control via NTC and doesn’t have term remaining.

Wild that Tarasenko is on his third team since playing for the Blues: Rangers, Senators, Panthers.

Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Matt, I am good with the Blues making the playoffs, if they were to make it they would be blown out in the first round. I believe the fan base would be okay provided the club plays its young guns, starting with Jimmy Snuggerud this season (assuming his team doesn’t have a deep run). Heck, bring up Dean too. Next year in camp give a serious look at Dyvorsky. Us fans would be good with seeing the future and their development. BY the way, DB should put Bolduk on the PP NOW. He can’t be any worse than what he is putting out there.

Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, playoff experience is helpful for future years, even if there is a short stay this season. As far as the kids, they have to be ready for the role. You can’t bring them up and put them in a role where it’s tough for them to succeed. That helps neither the team nor the player.

I still feel like Jimmy Snuggerud makes his NHL debut this season. Dalibor Dvorsky will have a much greater chance to impress the Blues now that he’s in North America. He’ll be at the prospect tournament and main training camp, unlike last year. He’ll have his shot to make the team in the fall.

For Bolduc, I agree with you about getting him on the power play. The Blues made it clear where he stands on the PP pecking order, and that’s behind Saad, Perunovich, Faulk and Hayes. Every time I’ve asked, the response has always been that they don’t want to overwhelm him as a rookie. But getting him on the PP should help him settle into offensive situations.

ICCFIM: What is your grade on Bolduc so far? I have watched the last few games and you don’t notice him much on the ice.

Matthew DeFranks: He’s been fine, I guess? Hasn’t made the mistakes you expect of a young, offensive winger. He’s had moments of dynamic play, but not game-breaking ones. I’d like to see him get more regular minutes instead of playing nine minutes a night and no PP time.

Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Concerning Roy Hobbs, my opinion is he won’t show his face in this part of cyberspace because a few years ago he felt VERY strongly Army should keep Husso and trade Binner. Time has proven Roy was horribly misguided, that move would have been suicide for the franchise. Binnington is the the one guy keeping the Blues’ hopes alive for a playoff spot. I vote Binner the Winner for this year’s Vezina, most nights he is the the only reason a blues win versus losing losing 6-1. Monday’s nights win in Philly is a prime example. But hey, Roy was entertaining.

Matthew DeFranks: I mentioned this on the podcast today, but earlier in the season, Robert Thomas was the runaway for best player and most valuable player to the Blues. Now, Jordan Binnington has made that a conversation.

For the Vezina, it’s voted on by the NHL general managers, and a lot of times, they look at wins as a top statistic. Right now, Binnington is ninth in the league in wins, and he’s stolen many games for the Blues this season.

Connor Hellebuyck should win the award, but I wonder how many down-ballot votes Binnington gets from the GMs.

Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: News Flash….Tarasenko is now a Panther.

Matthew DeFranks: Indeed. A 2024 fourth that could become a 2026 third if Florida wins the Cup, and a 2025 third.

Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Let’s all pray Krug accepts a trade in the next two days.. We need to unload him.

Matthew DeFranks: If the Blues can do that without retaining salary, that would be a win. But the catch is that Krug might only waive his NTC to get sent to a contender. And contenders generally don’t have that much cap space to commit to that sort of asset.

Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: If Buchy gets dealt it means the Blues are in for a L O N G rebuild.

Matthew DeFranks: If the Blues can get an NHL asset to help now down the lineup, a prospect on defense to help in two years, and a first-rounder to help in four years, that’s the type of layered approach that can help turn around a franchise. Of course, this relies on the young forwards progressing and replacing the production Buchnevich put up in the next couple years.

pugger: Matty D!! Hope you are well sir… So if you are playing GM these next few days, what would you do? I think if you can find a team for Buchy and pull a blue chip D prospect from their system and maybe a 2nd chip, you gotta do that, right? No matter what the Blues needs are moving forward (everything but goalie???) they gotta find that D man that can be an anchor… Thoughts? Thanks Matt!!

Matthew DeFranks: If I’m Doug Armstrong, I’m starting the conversation with the layers mentioned in the previous response. Of course, that can be variable depending on the caliber of the defensive prospect. If it’s someone like Brandt Clarke or David Jiricek or Simon Edvinsson, that’s a pretty big piece.

Finding a young stud defenseman would be the best-case outcome of this trade deadline, but those guys don’t move very often. I think I went through that last chat on how No. 1 defensemen were acquired and the vast majority were through the draft.

pugger: And would the Blues really send Kyrou (+ something) to Ottawa for Brady Tkachuk???

Matthew DeFranks: I believe reports out of Ottawa are that the Senators are not moving Brady Tkachuk.

darkwingduck: how do you answer some of these questions seriously? trading schenn and speculating about who will be captain this year, really? that’s not happening.

Matthew DeFranks: People ask, I try to answer. As mentioned in that answer, it’s unlikely for a number of reasons. Schenn’s production and cap hit aren’t attractive to acquire. Schenn is important to the organization as an outward face and he’s aa guy that truly cares about everyone in the organization, which is unseen, but goes a long way.

Fan since the 70’s.: Hi Matthew, Who is the third most likely Blue to be traded by Friday?

Matthew DeFranks: If the top two are Marco Scandella and Oskar Sundqvist, I’ll go with Pavel Buchnevich as No. 3. Maybe Nick Leddy and Brandon Saad are in a tier below that. And then Krug or Faulk in a tier below that.

Noreaster: Would love to see Faulk and Saad go in the same trade now, and Krug and Leddy go during the summer. Any chance this can happen at all?

Matthew DeFranks: I guess there’s always a chance, but not really. Doug Armstrong is having a tough time moving one, versus packaging those guys together.

Noreaster: With the Panthers and Knights and Oilers already finding alternatives, does this leave Carolina as the last chance for Buchnevich to move? If so, what do you think the return is?

Matthew DeFranks: Vancouver could create space for Buchnevich if they move Lindholm and don’t get Guentzel. Vegas could create space by putting another player on LTIR. Would the Rangers go through re-acquiring him?

chico: The Panthers are in first place,why do they need Tarasenko?

Matthew DeFranks: Nick Cousins was on Florida’s second line last night.

Colin B: With more cap space on its way, do you see the blues trading one (or maybe 2!) defensemen in the offseason? That seems like when the blues could make the Flyers version of the Hayes trade work, no?

Matthew DeFranks: It’s an interesting thought. Hayes had a $7.14M cap hit and three years left on his deal when the Flyers traded him. They retained 50% of his salary for those three years, and got a sixth-rounder in return. Not a bad thought, but I’m not sure if Doug Armstrong wants dead money on the books for that long, which would be the case for a buyout too with some different math.

Rob in St. Charles: Matthew, sorry, late to the chat. Forgive me if this has been asked and answered already. I saw a report a few days ago where the Blues and Oilers were working a deal for Buchy. The Blues would receive a 2025 1st round pick, a 2026 2nd round pick and either prospect Xavier Bourgault or Evan Bouchard. Does this deal make sense?

Matthew DeFranks: That does not make sense. The Oilers are not trading Evan Bouchard. Even though they would need a roster player to come off the books, he would not be that guy.

Rob in St. Charles: I’d love to see Army send Kyrou and a 2nd round 2025 draft pick to Arizona for Clayton Keller. Would Arizona be interested in this?

Matthew DeFranks: Can’t see them being interested. Keller is $1M cheaper annually and more productive. At some point, the Coyotes have to keep players and stop turning them into draft picks.

Colin B: Frank Seravalli on DFO live reported that the blues may consider retaining money to improve the return for Buchnevich…that sounds like they may have a target return and are “getting creative”. I am surprised they would need to retain for him.

Matthew DeFranks: The national reports have all indicated that Doug Armstrong has set his price. He has the power here. He doesn’t have to do anything. It’s on the other teams to meet him. It would be great if the league allowed teams to retain for certain years, but that’s not doable. For instance, retaining 50% of him this year, and 0% next year since teams are tight to the cap right now.

Rob in St. Charles: I know Krug has a NTC in his contract, but couldn’t Army hold his feet to the fire and say “we are going to release you, so you could be picked up by a team you’re not crazy about. Drop the NTC and tell us 5 destinations you would accept”. If I’m Krug I would almost have to take that offer, wouldn’t you?

Matthew DeFranks: Armstrong could say that, but teams only get $1.15M of cap relief when they send players with larger cap hits to the minors. And the majority of that space is used to bring up a player from the minors to fill that roster spot.

So Krug could say “Sure, waive me. If I’m hard to trade, then no one will claim me. And I’ll get paid $6.5M to be in the AHL, while you receive zero cap relief.”

More precisely, negligible cap relief. Minimum salary is $775k, so they’d create $375k at most.

I don’t know this, but I would imagine Doug Armstrong already knows where Torey Krug would accept a trade to. He got Vladimir Tarasenko’s list a while ago. Different situation since Krug does not want out, but has to be part of his due dilligence.

Rob in St. Charles: OK, then what about Bourgault?

Matthew DeFranks: Do the Blues need another forward prospect? And in that case, the Oilers still need to move someone off their roster. Plus, they lost cap space with their acquisitions from Anaheim.

STCBluesFan: Thanks for the Chat Matt. I agree that Parayko’s offense can be better, however remember when he first game on the scene it was his big shot that got all the attention. I think he has tuned his game to exactly what the Blues wanted from him. Remember we got all these “offensive minded/puck moving” defensemen to do that (ie Krug, Faulk, Scotty P). Leddy has been (until last night) been playing some of his best hockey and Scandella has been pretty solid. If there are defensemen to be moved I would say Faulk and Krug, maybe Scotty P. Although I think Faulk is still hurt and we are not going to get anything for Scotty P but maybe a 7 rounder (better than nothing). Your thoughts?

Matthew DeFranks: It’s a fair point. He handles one side of the game, and his partner provides the offense. The overarching point is that successful, Cup-winning teams have a guy that can do it all. Paryako is very good at what he does, and he clearly does it well this season. But he cannot be your best defenseman on the roster.

As for Perunovich, he has to play 12 more games in order to remain an RFA this summer. If he doesn’t play those games, he’ll become a UFA. It would be bad asset management for the Blues to lose him for nothing, especially when he’s been a healthy scratch this season for 19 games, including last night.

The comp I see for Perunovich would be Calen Addison when he got traded from Minnesota to San Jose for a fifth and a minor-league forward. Of course, teams might be wary of Perunovich’s injury history.

STCBluesFan: bad asset management = Doug Armstrong

Matthew DeFranks: The ghost of Jake Walman just griddy’d.

Gordy: Will we ever get to see Brett Hull wasted and partying again? Oh how long ago 2019 seems…

Matthew DeFranks: Maybe you’ll have to attend the Blues Hall of Fame functions.

We have emptied the queue today, so we’ll call it there. Thanks for stopping by. Enjoy the rest of the week.