Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2024: Busts from proven MLB simulation that called Daulton Varsho’s difficult season – CBS Sports
Several notable pitchers switched teams this offseason, which included Corbin Burnes joining the Orioles and Tyler Glasnow joining the Dodgers. Their teams will be hoping their stellar production travels with them, but that’s not always the case, as Yankees fans found out with Carlos Rodon last season. Should your 2024 Fantasy baseball picks include Burnes and Glasnow, or will they be among the top 2024 Fantasy baseball busts following their change of scenery?
Glasnow had a 3.13 career ERA in his former home of Tropicana Field in Tampa, but that jumps to a 4.28 ERA in all other ballparks combined. Your 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings should account for an expected dropoff from him, but where in Fantasy baseball drafts would he still be a valuable pickup? Before finalizing your 2024 Fantasy baseball draft prep, be sure to see the 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Last season, SportsLine’s Projection Model identified several top Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts, including Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho.
Varsho set new career highs in doubles (23), triples (3), home runs (27), RBI (74) and stolen bases (16) in 2022 and Fantasy baseball managers were predicting he’d take another step forward in 2023, drafting him 73rd overall on average. However, the model saw some holes in his game and predicted him as a 2023 Fantasy baseball bust who wouldn’t live up to his Fantasy baseball ADP.
The result: Varsho’s OPS dropped from .745 to .674 and he also saw drops in home runs (20) and RBI (61), while failing to take advantage of the new baserunning rules (16 steals again). Anybody who followed the model’s advice and avoided Varsho in their Fantasy baseball drafts avoided a major headache.
The SportsLine model is engineered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. And that same group is sharing its 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets over at SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts long before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day.
Any time more MLB news comes out about MLB free agency signings or Fantasy baseball injuries, the team at SportsLine updates its projections. Go to SportsLine now to see these proven Fantasy baseball cheat sheets.
Top 2024 Fantasy baseball busts
One of the Fantasy baseball busts 2024 the model is fading: Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette. After leading the AL in hits in both 2021 and 2022, Bichette was still among the league leaders in 2023, while hitting .306 with 20 home runs. However, there are a number of worrisome trends for Bichette, including that he is no longer a threat on the basepaths. After stealing 25 bags in 2021, he cut that in half to 13 in 2022 and then dropped all the way down to just five swiped bags in 2023.
Another concern is that Bichette posted his lowest exit velocity, worst launch angle, and lowest hard-hit percentage in 2023 when compared to the previous two seasons. So, both his legs and his bat are trending in the wrong direction, which makes him a bit of a risk to grab early in 2024 Fantasy baseball drafts. That hasn’t stopped many Fantasy players who are taking him around the 40th pick on average, but the model slots someone like Seattle’s J.P. Crawford ahead of Bichette, despite the former having a 2024 Fantasy baseball ADP over 100 spots after Bichette.
Another of the 2024 Fantasy baseball busts the model projects won’t live up to their ADP: Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Many of his key stats have fallen the past two years as he enters his 25-year-old campaign. His power numbers, especially, have taken a big hit as he hit 26 home runs and had 94 RBI last year, compared to 48 and 111 just two years prior. His OPS dropped to .788, down precipitously from 1.002 in 2021.
Fantasy players, however, are still treating him like a premium option at first base. He’s going off the board just outside the second round on average. There are far better values available with first basemen such as Christian Walker (ADP: 104) and Paul Goldschmidt (ADP: 63) projected to outperform Guerrero. See more busts at SportsLine.
How to find proven 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings
SportsLine’s model is also fading a surprising starting pitcher who is coming off the board in the third round on average in early 2024 Fantasy baseball drafts. The model is predicting this ace suffers a setback and finishes outside the top 15 at his position. Avoiding him until later on could be the difference in winning your league or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.
So which 2024 Fantasy busts should you be avoiding in your upcoming drafts? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that predicted Daulton Varsho’s falloff in 2023, and find out.
