Jaylen Brown pulled off a familiar first quarter in Portland on Monday night. He scored nine points on 4-for-7 shooting and landed in an initiator role during several sets while Jayson Tatum started 2-for-6. The Celtics ran a pair of screening actions on and away from the ball, creating a pair of Al Horford’s three triples in the first.
Boston generated 39 points to open the game despite Tatum only creating six and both Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday sitting out. The Trail Blazers played within single digits in each frame, winning the third while the first and fourth allowed the Celtics to pull away late. Tatum never found his shot, finishing 9-for-23, while settling into a facilitator role that helped Brown reach 27 points in the 121-99 Boston win. The bench added 35 points, not including 11 from Al Horford and Payton Pritchard in spot starts.
Even with Tatum’s road trip slump continuing (39% FG), Brown and Tatum played in tandem, finishing in one of the more dynamic team offensive performances all year by leading a 34 assist-to-three turnover effort. They combined to give away the ball once.
“I think (Tatum’s) playing really good basketball,” Joe Mazzulla said, defending Tatum’s approach. “It just looks different. He had at least, I saw, five potential assists tonight…he’s being patient, he’s understanding where the game is coming from. Tonight he handled a little more in pick-and-roll and I thought he made some good plays. He missed a couple easy baskets at the rim, but I think the whole looking like he’s struggling, you can talk yourself into those things and I think people are so used to seeing him dominate in a different way, but we have a different team this year with different expectations.”
“The most valuable thing a guy like him can do is do what the game needs and do what the team needs, and also be able to be yourself which he’s done for us…there were about five plays tonight we went through in the film session that he had complete carryover from and that’s what i care about to where he was able to manipulate the game with the proper spacing, take the shot he wants to take or get the ball where it needs to and he did that more times than not.”
While Tatum’s shot eluded him, Brown’s surge following the all-star break continued with a ninth straight game scoring at least 20 points back to the Chicago win that started the second half. Brown averaged 28.0 points per game over that stretch, 8.6 coming in first quarters to set tones while Tatum eases into the games (5.9 1Q PPG on 41.9% FG over last nine). That’s while Brown balanced a 3.7 assists and 1.3 turnover per game ratio, Tatum turning up his passing game throughout the nights (5.8 APG) and Brown attempting the most shots on the team (20.9-to-18.8) while Boston won 7-of-9. With Brown devastating mismatches (53.2%) — the formula is working.
It’s also thrusting Brown back into the mix to make an All-NBA team. While no longer necessary for contractual reasons after signing his super max extension last summer that’ll begin in 2024-25, reaching that status by improving on his 2023 output put to rest, for now, questions about whether he’s worth $57-million in average annual salary over the next five years. Perennial contention for All-NBA makes that so, and finding a consistent role in this starting lineup along with a dynamic that works next to Tatum will make keeping them together into the future a priority even as the roster becomes more expensive and penalties more disruptive to roster-building.
“Today was a mentality loss,” Brown said after the Cleveland loss last week, flexing more vocal leadership of late. “We had the game and then we got comfortable, so it’s more of a mindset thing than an xs-and-os. We’ve gotta be the more disciplined, the more militant team, be focused, we weren’t that. Usually we are that … our mindset was a little bit too lax and we were too careless with the ball. We wasn’t intentional on offense, we let guys get to tendencies that we’re supposed to take away, gave up offensive rebounds, stuff that all comes with mindset.”
Since then, Boston swept the margin stats against Portland, won all but the free throws over Phoenix and even took 3-of-4 from Denver, save for turnovers that night. The Celtics returned to devastating matchups on Monday, shooting 64.7% against Anfernee Simons, 61.5% over Dalano Banton and 50% versus Kris Murray.
With roughly 18 games remaining, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Haliburton, Donovan Mitchell, Trae Young, Devin Booker, Julius Randle, Kristaps Porzingis and Jimmy Butler probably won’t become eligible All-NBA contention by the 65 game minimum rule enacted by the NBA this year. It’s less clear what kind of impact the position-less voting that begins as well will have on cases like Brown’s. He almost certainly wouldn’t have made a team following last season, with injuries at star forwards across the league paving the way to his slam dunk status to make Second Team All-NBA.
MVP candidates Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Dončić, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tatum should sweep the first team. Kevin Durant makes the strongest case among the outside contenders, with Jalen Brunson, De’Aaron Fox, Anthony Edwards, Steph Curry, Tyrese Maxey and Damian Lillard potentially all locks for six of the final 10 spots when only four would be eligible in the past. Voters will have to weigh whether another center beyond Anthony Davis warrants contention with the third-team slot removed. Karl-Anthony Towns could’ve fit that mold, but he’s likely out for the season with 60 games played.
That places Brown in a class of forwards and more miscellaneous contenders like Domantas Sabonis, who could also become that third center. Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James feel like locks. Zion Williamson, Paul George, Pascal Siakam, DeMar DeRozan and Brandon Ingram all share similar stat outputs as Brown. Lauri Markkanen will be a close call in the games played category and lost to Brown in a similarly close race last year, winning likely considered. Paolo Banchero could receive some love too, leading a home court advantage contender in the east. Would Victor Wembanyama votes be the craziest thing? Probably too soon.
Anything’s possible in the new voting system, and with a new width of vote-getters possible, the threshold for Brown to break through will become more stringent. Expected plus-minus ranks Gilgeous-Alexander, Antetokounmpo, Doncic, Jokic, Leonard, James, Durant, George, Tatum, Curry, Brunson, Edwards, Lillard, Davis and Fox as most impactful among the most likely candidates. Those numbers, for what it’s worth, also place Derrick White, Chet Holmgren and Wembanyama favorably alongside them. Brown’s +3.2 marks a jump over his +2.4 from a year ago, but it still trails all those names, Maxey and James Harden.
Brown’s within striking distance if more injuries emerge and the Celtics’ separation above the NBA field sways more voters. A loaded roster, lower usage rate and the new voting system will work against him. Along with a team system growing more egalitarian as the year progresses and rest soon entering the equation for a Boston team that ahead by 8.5 games in the east.
“We talked about, today, we have to find ways to break down (Portland’s) layers,” Mazzulla said. “Having an understanding of shot selection at different times, and guys like Sam (Hauser) are open on the second and third layer of the possession, because you break that down. I thought Jayson, Jaylen and Derrick in our pick-and-rolls did a good job of breaking down those layers, getting it to him. There were a couple where Payton (Pritchard) found him.”
