Padres-White Sox trade grades: Taking stock of the Dylan Cease deal for both sides – The Athletic

By Andy McCullough, Stephen J. Nesbitt and Cody Stavenhagen

The trade

Padres get: Dylan Cease, RHP

White Sox get: Jairo Irairte, RHP; Drew Thorpe, RHP; Steven Wilson, RHP; Samuel Zavala, OF

Andy McCullough: For the past several seasons, the Padres saw the benefit of a starting pitcher with excellent stuff but imprecise command. Blake Snell did not last long in games and he often issued walks, but he tended to avoid damage and rack up strikeouts — enough to win the National League Cy Young award. With Snell departing in free agency — and San Diego avoiding long-term financial commitments as the club attempts something resembling a reset — Dylan Cease serves as a simulacrum of Snell, albeit with less intimidating stuff and more concerning peripheral numbers.

Cease was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2022, striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings while posting a 2.20 ERA. He experienced some serious backsliding last season. He struck out batters at a similar rate but permitted a bevy of hard contact. “He can be a No. 1 or a No. 5, depending on the day,” one rival executive said. But even if he’s just a No. 3, Cease offers serious value for a Padres team that still has the talent to compete for a wild-card spot. He will earn just $8 million in 2024 and still be under team control in 2025. He bolsters a San Diego rotation that looks formidable if Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove can stay healthy and if new addition Michael King can maintain the form he showed last season with the Yankees.

For the White Sox, the success of this package will depend on the prowess of their revamped player development system. Zavala will have to work to stick in center field as he rises through the minors, but he held his own as an 18-year-old with Low-A Lake Elsinore last season, which is encouraging. Thorpe is another former Yankee who joined the Padres as part of the return haul for Juan Soto. He was a second-round pick in 2022. He possesses the off-speed arsenal of a big-league starter but not the fastball, which the White Sox will have to work to improve. Iriarte tips the scales at 160 pounds, which is light even for an industry that no longer immediately banishes skinny guys to the bullpen. Wilson is a useful reliever for the big-league staff.

Padres grade: B
White Sox grade: B-

Stephen J. Nesbitt: Dylan Cease is a Padre, of all things, because baseball has no bigger chaos agent than A.J. Preller. Nobody scripts a roster-building roadmap like this. He let the NL Cy Young Award winner (Snell), one of the league’s best closers (Josh Hader) and three more starters (Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martínez) walk in free agency. He traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to rebuild the rotation and cut costs. And then the coda to all that was … trading for an ace-caliber starter hours before the Padres team charter set off for Seoul, South Korea?

This is wild-boy behavior. It’s glorious.

The impact on the Padres rotation is immense. Bringing in King, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez added depth, but Cease effectively backfills for Snell. Cease, a Cubs draftee later included in a crosstown trade for José Quintana, carries much of the same volatility as Snell, though the acquisition cost for Cease comes in prospect capital rather than a long-term financial commitment. Cease has the type of swing-and-miss stuff that draws gawkers on Pitching Ninja’s timeline, starting with a wicked slider and mid- to upper-90s fastball velocity. But he also led the AL in walks in 2020 and 2022, and in wild pitches in 2021 and 2023.

What version of Cease will the Padres get, as he departs the AL Central for the much harsher NL West? He was nasty in 2022 but followed that with a 4.57 ERA in 2023, including a 25-start stretch with a 5.48 ERA.

Hey, they can always try to trade him again next year.

The White Sox waited out the trade market until mid-March and seem to have done well here. They could have held on to Cease for longer, but they’d risk him losing further value if he scuffled again this season. The Brewers got infielder Joey Ortiz, pitcher DL Hall and a 2024 Competitive Balance Round A pick for one year of Corbin Burnes. Zavala, ranked No. 6 in the Padres system by Keith Law, should be a 20-20 threat down the line; Thorpe is ranked seventh; Iriarte is ninth. He touches triple digits and could be a force out of the White Sox bullpen down the line, while Wilson will fit in nicely there for now.

Padres grade: B
White Sox grade: A-

Cody Stavenhagen: The reasons this makes sense for the Padres are obvious. If they have any hope of contending with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks this season, they need more pitching. Dealing a key return in the Juan Soto deal to make it happen? Sounds entirely on-brand for A.J. Preller.

As for the White Sox? This will likely go down as an important move early in the tenure of Chris Getz, who is inheriting the tall task of retooling a roster that broke into shambles last season.

In Cease, the White Sox had the most valuable trade chip on the market. Here was a pitcher who only two years ago was runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award. He has two years of team control remaining. Making only $8 million, his salary fit the budgets of trade suitors who were shying away from the high price tags of Snell and Jordan Montgomery.

Chicago’s return for this valuable chip is interesting but risky, as is the case with most deals for prospects. Thorpe and Iriate are both talented arms, but neither projects as a sure-thing frontline starter. Here’s one way to view the trade: If Thorpe becomes a third starter and Iriate ultimately turns into a nasty reliever, that alone isn’t a terrible haul for two years of Cease. Wilson has already had success as a big-league reliever and boasts a killer sweeper that can help the White Sox immediately.

Zavala, though, serves as the final piece that makes this trade more enticing. Swing-and-miss is a real concern here, but Zavala also posted a .420 on-base percentage as an 18-year-old in Low-A last season. The White Sox will roll the dice on his bat, and there’s a chance for real upside.

The players headed to Chicago may have been expendable for the Padres. But there’s a good combination of safe bets and projection that could really help Chicago’s system.

Padres Grade: B+
White Sox Grade: A-

(Top photo: Nam Y. Huh / Associated Press)