Thursday night’s NBA slate features seven games, but from a betting perspective, the most interesting game appears to be between the New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets. The Knicks enter the matchup on a three-game winning streak while the Nuggets will be looking for retribution. Two prop bets from this game have caught my attention. Let’s take a closer look at that and the rest of my picks for Thursday.
Brunson is the engine that propels the Knicks’ offense and his 31.4% usage rate this season reflects that. Brunson eclipsed this line in six of his past 10 games and in 13 of his past 20 games. Although the Nuggets rank 13th in rebounds allowed and seventh in assists allowed per game to point guards, Brunson is still well positioned to surpass this line. He has averaged 6.1 rebound chances and 9.5 potential assists per game over his past 20 games.
Murray has surpassed this line in seven of his past 10 games and six of his past 10 home games. The Nuggets are 9.5-point favorites and might look to get off to a fast start on Thursday night signaling early playmaking opportunites for Murray.
The Hawks are still without Trae Young and Murray has put together some middling performances over the last 10 games, only clearing this line four times. However, he has averaged 20.9 field goal attempts per game over that time frame. There are some positives: Murray’s usage rate is 29.9% in games without Young this season and the Hawks will also be without Jalen Johnson. Murray has scored 23 or more points in each of the past five games that Johnson has missed. Even though the Hawks are 9.5-point underdogs to the Suns, this matchup has the second-highest point total (226.5) on Thursday’s slate.
The thought of betting this under, considering how Sabonis has played, can be unsettling. He has cleared this line in four of his past five games, but the Kings are 11.5-point road favorites against a dreadful Wizards team that ranks 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Sabonis has gone under this line in 70% of the last 20 games the Kings have won by 10 or more points.
Zion Williamson over 5.5 rebounds.
Williamson cleared this line in seven straight games while averaging 12.2 rebound chances per game over his past 10 games. He faces a Magic team on Thursday night that plays at one of the slowest paces in the league and ranks third in points allowed per 100 possessions.
Cam Thomas over 22.5 points.
Thomas has cleared this line in four of his past six games since returning from a right ankle injury, averaging 17.8 field goal attempts and 32.5 minutes per game. The Bucks have been vulnerable on the perimeter all season, ranking 24th in points allowed per game to shooting guards. This is a good spot for Thomas on the road.
Projections and injury reports
Odds provided by ESPN BET. Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
New Orleans Pelicans at Orlando Magic
7 p.m. Amway Center, Orlando
Records (Against the Spread)
Pelicans: 42-26 (38-29-1)
Magic: 41-28 (45-24-0)
Line: Pelicans (-2.5) Total: 207.5
Money Line: Pelicans (-140), Magic (+120)
BPI Projection: Pelicans by 1.5, straight up 55%, 226.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Pelicans: Matt Ryan, (GTD – Illness); Dyson Daniels, (OUT – Knee)
Magic: None reported
Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
Records (Against the Spread)
Kings: 40-28 (35-32-1)
Wizards: 11-58 (30-38-1)
Line: Kings (-11.5) Total: 236.5
Money Line: Kings (-575), Wizards (+410)
BPI Projection: Kings by 7.1, straight up 73%, 237.2 total points.
Injury Report:
Kings: Kevin Huerter, (GTD – Shoulder); Sasha Vezenkov, (GTD – Ankle); Trey Lyles, (OUT – Knee)
Wizards: Deni Avdija, (GTD – Knee); Richaun Holmes, (GTD – Illness); Eugene Omoruyi, (OUT – Ankle); Landry Shamet, (OUT – Calf); Marvin Bagley III, (OUT – Back); Tyus Jones, (OUT – Back); Bilal Coulibaly, (OUT – Wrist); Isaiah Livers, (OUT – Hip)
Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. Toyota Center, Houston
Records (Against the Spread)
Bulls: 34-35 (35-33-1)
Rockets: 33-35 (37-29-2)
Line: Rockets (-3.5) Total: 218.5
Money Line: Bulls (+135), Rockets (-160)
BPI Projection: Rockets by 4.2, straight up 65%, 226.2 total points.
Injury Report:
Bulls: Alex Caruso, (GTD – Ankle); Coby White, (GTD – Hip); Julian Phillips, (OUT – Foot); Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Knee); Patrick Williams, (OUT – Foot); Zach LaVine, (OUT – Foot)
Rockets: Cam Whitmore, (OUT – Knee); Alperen Sengun, (OUT – Ankle); Steven Adams, (OUT – Knee); Tari Eason, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Records (Against the Spread)
Nets: 26-43 (29-37-3)
Bucks: 44-25 (31-38-0)
Line: Bucks (-9.5) Total: 220.5
Money Line: Nets (+340), Bucks (-450)
BPI Projection: Bucks by 9.1, straight up 79%, 238.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Nets: Nic Claxton, (GTD – Illness); Dorian Finney-Smith, (OUT – Ankle); Ben Simmons, (OUT – Back); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Hamstring)
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. American Airlines Center, Dallas
Records (Against the Spread)
Jazz: 29-40 (37-32-0)
Mavericks: 40-29 (39-30-0)
Line: Mavericks (-14.5) Total: 237.5
Money Line: Jazz (+750), Mavericks (-1400)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 11.9, straight up 86%, 242.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Jazz: Jordan Clarkson, (GTD – Groin); Lauri Markkanen, (GTD – Quadriceps)
Mavericks: Brandon Williams, (GTD – Wrist); Josh Green, (OUT – Ankle)
New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets
9 p.m. Ball Arena, Denver
Records (Against the Spread)
Knicks: 41-27 (36-31-1)
Nuggets: 48-21 (31-36-2)
Line: Nuggets (-9.5) Total: 207.5
Money Line: Knicks (+340), Nuggets (-450)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 6.1, straight up 71%, 226.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Knicks: Julius Randle, (OUT – Shoulder); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT – Ankle); OG Anunoby, (OUT – Elbow)
Nuggets: Zeke Nnaji, (GTD – Back); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee)
Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns
10:30 p.m. Footprint Center, Phoenix
Records (Against the Spread)
Hawks: 30-38 (23-45-0)
Suns: 40-29 (29-39-1)
Line: Suns (-9.5) Total: 226.5
Money Line: Hawks (+320), Suns (-430)
BPI Projection: Suns by 7.2, straight up 74%, 238.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Seth Lundy, (GTD – Back); Wesley Matthews, (GTD – Illness); AJ Griffin, (OUT – Lower Leg); Jalen Johnson, (OUT – Ankle); Kobe Bufkin, (OUT – Toe); Mouhamed Gueye, (OUT – Elbow); Trae Young, (OUT – Finger); Saddiq Bey, (OUT – Knee)
Suns: Josh Okogie, (GTD – Abdomen); Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
