Prop bet #1: Money Middleton
It’s amazing how much more like a legitimate contender the Milwaukee Bucks look like with a healthy Khris Middleton. Of course, it shouldn’t be a surprise, as Middleton was an essential element of the Bucks’ championship run.
It’s just that because of injuries, he’s been absent so much that I began to forget how impactful an offensive player he is when he’s right. The good news is that after missing 16 straight games, Middleton appears to be in top form.
Khris went 8-15 in his first game back against the Suns and followed that up by going 8-11 against the Celtics.
And he showcased the full offensive arsenal. He made pull-up threes off the dribble, got to the free-throw line, attacked the rim in transition, and made smart cuts around the basket. As he’s also Giannis’ favorite pick-and-roll partner, he also gets a lot of quality shots in the halfcourt.
However, he’s also comfortable taking and making difficult shots. He posted up and scored over a variety of quality defenders, including Jayson Tatum. Those are quite literally unguardable shots when he’s making them. He did a beautiful job varying his shot diet and keeping opponents guessing, finishing with 22 points in both games.
These Khris Middleton odds remain skeptical of his play following such a long layoff, but I’ve seen enough in his two games back to be highly encouraged about the state of Middleton’s health as well as his game.
Khris Middleton prop: Over 14.5 points (-110 at SportsInteraction)
Prop bet #2: Carom Curry
The Golden State Warriors are one of the Association’s smallest teams and the Minnesota Timberwolves one of the largest. It would be fair to assume that the former would struggle on the glass and the latter would dominate.
However, those assumptions would be quite wrong. The Warriors are a much better rebounding team than the Timberwolves, and not just on a pound-for-pound basis.
The Warriors can only play small ball because Steph Curry and the other Warriors guards are committed to battling on the glass.
Curry’s rebounding is truly an unappreciated trait of his game. Per Cleaning the Glass, he’s been in the 85th percentile among all point guards in defensive rebound rate for most of his career. While he’s not quite at that level this season, he’s put together a strong string of games on the glass over the past few weeks that suggest a return to form.
Curry is averaging 5.8 rebounds over his last 10 games and has had 4+ in seven of those 10 games. He’s also logged double-digit rebounds twice in that span.
The Wolves are also missing one of their better rebounders in Karl-Anthony Towns, his nominal replacement Naz Reid is much less impactful on the boards. As such, I think these Steph Curry odds have great value despite the surface-level disparity between these teams.
Steph Curry prop: Over 3.5 rebounds (-130 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: A Harden for hard times
It feels like a lifetime ago that James Harden was a Philadelphia 76er, but in truth, he began the season on their roster. This is the first game James has played against his old team, and I’m banking on one of the most reliable motivators in all of sports to help him beat this prop: spite.
These James Harden odds are set like this is just another game against one of the NBA’s bottom-feeding teams but to James, it’s much more than that. Daryl Morey, Philadelphia general manager and Harden’s long-time booster and confidant, spurned Harden rather than offer him a long-term contract last summer.
James held out until Morey agreed to trade him to the Los Angeles Clippers, where he ‘s produced at an All-Star level for most of the season.
Harden might not get to rim much anymore, but he’s still plenty capable as a scorer. He’s done a better job taking and making the catch-and-shoot threes that come with playing off Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, and he’s still making his own at a high clip (40.3%).
The Clippers typically have excellent floor balance, with a spaced floor and a rim-rolling big in the middle that allows Harden to score 1-on-1. While he doesn’t draw the historic levels of free throws he once did, his 14.9% foul drawing rate is still an elite mark.
The 76ers defense is also pretty miserable without Joel Embiid, ranking 23rd in the NBA since February. I’m expecting Harden to get his revenge on Sunday.
James Harden prop: Over 16.5 points (-110 at SportsInteraction)
