NBA Playoffs expert picks, odds for Monday: Thunder, Nuggets go for close-out wins – The Athletic
We’ve reached the stage of the NBA Playoffs where teams are playing in elimination games. Both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets are trying to close out series victories on Monday.
The Thunder lead the New Orleans Pelicans 3-0 in that first-round series while the Nuggets return home up 3-1 on the Los Angeles Lakers after the Lakers finally got on the board. Monday’s action starts with the Miami Heat hosting the Boston Celtics, hoping to even that series at 2-2.
All three series that are in action on Monday have a team that is -10000 to win the series.
Here is a look at what to expect from Monday’s games, including odds and staff picks for all three games.
All odds from BetMGM. Find the best deals on StubHub for tickets.
No. 1 Boston Celtics at No. 8 Miami Heat
How to watch: 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Boston leads series 2-1
Series odds: Celtics -10000, Heat +3000
Order was restored for Boston in Game 3. The shocking home loss (a continuing trend Boston will have to correct later in the playoffs), made this more of a series than anyone anticipated, but the Celtics cruised in Miami on Saturday. Miami never led in Game 3 and was never within 15 points in the second half of a 20-point loss.
So now the Celtics are an even bigger favorite in Game 4. Boston was favored by 9.5 points in Game 3, but that has moved to double digits after Saturday’s blowout win. Boston has been consistently the most favored team in the first-round series, even with that home blip in Game 2.
Miami has pulled off some impressive playoff upsets in recent years, but getting more in this series would be another surprise. If things go the way odds are saying, Boston could be closing this series out at home on Wednesday.
Expert picks for Celtics at Heat
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder at No. 8 New Orleans Pelicans
How to watch: 8:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
Oklahoma City leads series 3-0
Series odds: Thunder -10000, Pelicans +5500
This series has been all Oklahoma City since a very tight Game 1. The Thunder won by 32 in Game 2 and 21 in Game 3. Now, Oklahoma City is favored to get the sweep against the Zion Williamson-less Pelicans.
The Thunder were balanced in Saturday’s win in New Orleans. Three players scored more than 20 points: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (24 points, eight assists), Jalen Williams (21 points, nine rebounds) and Josh Giddey (21 points, eight rebounds).
This young Oklahoma City core will be judged on how it performs later in the playoffs, but a comfortable first-round series win, Zion or not, is a good first step in showing that this team is a real contender. Gilgeous-Alexander has been in the playoffs twice before but has never won a playoff series. Most of the rest of the core is in the postseason for the first time. It hasn’t looked like it yet.
If New Orleans is to extend this series, it will need more from C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram. McCollum is averaging 17 points per game in the series and only shoots 22.7 percent from 3-point range. Ingram hasn’t had a 20-point game yet this series.
Expert picks for Thunder at Pelicans
No. 2 Denver Nuggets at No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
How to watch: 11 p.m. ET on TNT
Denver leads series 3-1
Series odds: Nuggets -10000, Lakers +1800
The Lakers finally did it. They finally beat Denver. Now they have to do it three more times in a row.
With a 119-108 win on Saturday in Game 4, the Lakers beat Denver after losing 11 straight to the Nuggets. The end of that streak might do something for the Lakers mentally, but that reward might have to wait for next year. The Nuggets are headed back to Denver looking to close this series out and are favored by several points.
Of the main stars in this series, three of the four of them went off on Saturday. LeBron James scored 30 points and Anthony Davis had 25 points and a whopping 23 rebounds for the Lakers. Nikola Jokić did his magical thing (33 points, 14 assists, nine rebounds), but Jamal Murray didn’t make a 3-pointer and shot just 9-for-22 from the field. Even 27 points from Michael Porter Jr. weren’t enough for Denver.
All it takes for the Lakers to win is LeBron to drop 30 like he’s in his prime and Davis to grab all the rebounds while Murray has an off-shooting night. That can happen again, right?
It’s not like the Lakers haven’t had chances in this series. They have now led by double digits in all four games, but have just one win.
Expert picks for Nuggets at Lakers
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(Photo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Sean Gardner / Getty Images)
