MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And weâre looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. Weâll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, weâll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a smaller 6-game slate on both sites for Monday that was originally scheduled to begin at 7:40 PM ET. The Kansas City Royals threw a wrench into things by moving their start time up to 7:10 PM ET due to a dicey weather forecast in the late evening. Fortunately, both sites have accommodated by adjusting their lock times up, giving us a 6-game slate starting at 7:10 PM ET with little-to-no weather concerns.
We have some tough decisions to make on where to spend our salary, with a couple elite pitching options and very few cheap options to feel good about.
Letâs dive in and discuss some of the bats we should be targeting.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, May 6th
Chalk Stack – Dodgers vs. Roddery Munoz
Just over a month into the season, the Dodgers are sitting right where most expected them to be: at the top of the league in many offensive categories. They lead the league in wRC+ and wOBA by a significant margin, and they rank 2nd in ISO.
Eight of their nine projected hitters own an ISO of at least .161 versus RHP since the beginning of last season, and six of them own an ISO of at least .221 in that time.
They get a matchup against Marlins righty Roddery Munoz, who has made just two career major league appearances. Munoz has been excellent in his two starts, but there is nothing in his minor league numbers that tells us he can continue to have this type of success. He posted a below-average strikeout rate for three different teams at Triple-A over the last two seasons, with nearly unplayable walk rates at each stop. The regression almost certainly begins tonight against the Dodgers.
Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani are not only the two best hitters in the Dodgers lineup, but they are the two best hitters in all of baseball according to wRC+ and wOBA.
There is very little drop-off looking down the rest of the lineup. Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy, and Teoscar Hernandez are all elite options in any format. Even youngsters James Outman and Andy Pages have performed at spectacular levels. The only below-average hitter in the entire projected lineup is Gavin Lux, who I would restrict as an “only in a full stack” option when setting rules in our MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ.
The only thing holding back the Dodgers’ pOWN% is their pricing on a slate where there are very few value options at pitcher. On FanDuel, where we only need one pitcher, our Top Stacks tool has the Dodgers projected to be the most popular offense by nearly a 5% margin. On DraftKings, they are coming in nearly even with the Mariners at 16%, where we need that second pitcher.
Partly because of the aforementioned lack of pitching value, the Dodgers Opto% is actually coming in slightly lower than pOWN%. I would love to be able to jam Dodgers into as many lineups as possible, but it is more likely I prioritize pitching first.
Co-Chalk Stack:
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