Bundesliga Odds & Picks: Best Bets For Wolfsburg vs Bayer … – The Action Network
The Bundesliga returns from the October international break on Friday as Borussia Dortmund hosts Werder Bremen to kick off match week 8 in the German top flight. Three teams — Dortmund, Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen — remain unbeaten through the first seven, while Leverkusen hold the top spot in the table by one point over surprise package Stuttgart.
Both Leverkusen and Stuttgart have tricky away days against mid table clubs as Xabi Alonso’s league leaders visit Wolfsburg and Stuttgart travel to the capital to face Union Berlin. Bayern Munich are a huge road favorite against Mainz, who still haven’t won a match but haven’t been nearly as bad in their performances when you compare them to the results.
Here are my two best bets for match week eight.
Bundesliga Odds & Picks
Wolfsburg have lost three of their four matches away from home this season, but they will put their perfect record at home on the line against Leverkusen on Saturday. Leverkusen are the team I’ve upgraded in my numbers more than any other through seven matches this season, and I now have them just behind RB Leipzig as the second best team in the league. With that being said, it’s probably a good indicator that it’s time to sell high on Leverkusen as a sizable road favorite against an upper-mid table Wolfsburg club.
Leverkusen’s attack took a clear step forward in the second half of last season once Florian Wirtz returned from injury. It’s taken a leap this year with Moussa Diaby departing and Victor Boniface and Jonas Hofmann joining the club in the summer. Boniface has 7.2 non-penalty xG in seven matches and he’s averaged 6.63 shots per 90. Wirtz has posted 23 passes into the penalty area, which is eight more than every other player in the Bundesliga.
The market hasn’t been able to upgrade them fast enough this season. For example, Leverkusen closed -110 at Gladbach in the second match week. Now, they’re -135 against a better Wolfsburg team with slightly above average metrics thus far.
The overall defensive profile is solid for Alonso’s side, with one really glaring exception – set pieces. Leverkusen have conceded the most xGA from set plays this season, and that’s one clear area where Wolfsburg’s attack has been above average. Leverkusen’s incredible start to the season has left them overvalued now. It’s time to sell high, hold your nose and bet Wolfsburg +0.5 at +110.
Pick: Wolfsburg +0.5 (+110)
Most of the Bayern Munich squad were in the United States with the German National Team and new head coach Julian Nagelsmann as they played the USMNT and Mexico in two international friendlies. That’s a lot of travel for them to come back for a tricky away day to Mainz, especially as the Champions League comes back around in this midweek.
Mainz are one of the best buy lows in all of Europe’s top five leagues. They haven’t won a single match and while the underlying metrics have taken a step back, there’s been a lot of bad luck and variance go against them in the early portion of the season. They’ve conceded 19 goals this season from just 11.5 xG. Opponents have placed their shots really well too because Robin Zentner has only cost them one goal with his shot-stopping in goal.
Pressure is mounting on Bo Svensson as the search for their first win of the season begins. But Svensson has built up a lot of good will with his defensive organization and also for his club’s ability to take on and beat Bayern in the past. Mainz have beaten Bayern at home in three consecutive seasons. That success hasn’t translated to the Allianz Arena, but the solid defensive organization and potentially improved attack through Brajan Gruda could be the key to Mainz finding some goals.
Gruda let the Mainz U19 team to the league title, scored his first career senior goal against Gladbach and has provided some really good ball progression and shot creating production for Mainz. They’ve created the fewest expected goals in the Bundesliga, but injuries along the front line have led to them playing some reserves early in the year.
When you compare actual results to expected results, Mainz are one of the unluckiest teams to this point. It’s time to back them as a huge home dog against the German champions.
Pick: Mainz +1.5 (+115)
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